Publications related to Financial risk management

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

Portfolio Construction with Hierarchical Momentum

Urban Ulrych

This article presents a portfolio construction approach that combines the hierarchical clustering of a large asset universe with the stock price momentum. On one hand, investing in high-momentum stocks enhances returns by capturing the momentum premium. On ...

Pageant Media Ltd2024

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Safety risk management in University laboratories

Anastasia Jung

Risk management has become an essential element in the functioning of modern society. Correct risk identification and assessment are undoubtedly crucial to improving overall safety; nevertheless, often, it is accompanied by the wrong selection of correctiv ...

EPFL2023

Closed form approximation methods for portfolio valuation and risk management

Lotfi Boudabsa

In this thesis we present three closed form approximation methods for portfolio valuation and risk management. The first chapter is titled ``Kernel methods for portfolio valuation and risk management'', and is a joint work with Damir Filipovi'c (SFI and ...

EPFL2023

Challenging the Assumptions: Rethinking Privacy, Bias, and Security in Machine Learning

Bogdan Kulynych

Predictive models based on machine learning (ML) offer a compelling promise: bringing clarity and structure to complex natural and social environments. However, the use of ML poses substantial risks related to the privacy of their training data as well as ...

EPFL2023

Process modeling and integration of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas production in a kraft pulp mill via black liquor gasification

François Maréchal, Daniel Alexander Florez Orrego, Meire Ellen Gorete Ribeiro Domingos

The black liquor gasification integrated to chemical plants has shown potential for reducing the process irreversibility and promoting the decarbonization of this industrial sector. In the integrated chemical plants proposed in this work, the purpose is co ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2023

Incremental financial analysis of black liquor upgraded gasification in integrated kraft pulp and ammonia production plants under uncertainty of feedstock costs and carbon taxes

François Maréchal, Meire Ellen Gorete Ribeiro Domingos

In this work, the conventional scenario of the black liquor (BL) concentration and combustion is compared with the BL upgrading gasification process for ammonia production. The chemical processes synthesis, modeling and simulation are performed by using As ...

Elsevier2022

Le dehors de toute fête : une sociologie urbaine de la sécurité au Montreux Jazz Festival

Lucien Jean Delley

This thesis is the result of four years of investigation carried out as « security coordinator » of the Monteux Jazz Festival. From this operational commitment, I sought to understand : how the festival is integrated into the city ; what affects the safety ...

EPFL2022

A machine learning approach to portfolio pricing and risk management for high-dimensional problems

Damir Filipovic

We present a general framework for portfolio risk management in discrete time, based on a replicating martingale. This martingale is learned from a finite sample in a supervised setting. Our method learns the features necessary for an effective low-dimensi ...

WILEY2022

Financial Risk Management with Machine Learning

Marc-Aurèle Antoine Divernois

This thesis consists of three applications of machine learning techniques to risk management. The first chapter proposes a deep learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities of companies. Default probabilities are computed using artifi ...

EPFL2022

Use of space analog missions as an educational tool in primary schools

Volker Gass

Space exploration is a field that inspires a wide range of people, from children to university students, including the general public. With a return to the Moon planned for 2024 and the rapid expansion of the private industry, educating the next generation ...

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD2022

Technology Strategy in Dynamic Environments: A Computational Analysis of the Automation of Routines, the Organization of AI, and the Evaluation of Technology Risk

Maximilian Wieland Hofer

In this dissertation, I develop theory and evidence to argue that new technologies are central to how firms organize to create and capture value. I use computational methods such as reinforcement learning and probabilistic topic modeling to investigate thr ...

EPFL2022

Modeling and mitigating supply chain disruptions as a bilevel network flow problem

Ralf Seifert, Anna Timonina-Farkas, René Yves Glogg

Years of globalization, outsourcing and cost cutting have increased supply chain vulnerability calling for more effective risk mitigation strategies. In our research, we analyze supply chain disruptions in a production setting. Using a bilevel optimization ...

2022

Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach

Stéphane Joost

Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans a ...

Nature Portfolio2021

COVID-19: data-driven dynamic asset allocation in times of pandemic

Anna Timonina-Farkas

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance and value of multi-period asset allocation strategies responding to rapid changes in market behavior. In this article, we formulate and solve a multi-stage stochastic optimization problem, choosing the ...

AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS2021

Safety Decision-Making in Academia

Thierry Meyer, Anastasia Jung

This paper illustrates the challenges of safety management in Academia, which are difficult to overcome using conventional methods of risk management. The positive aspects and disadvantages of the risk management tools specifically designed for the laborat ...

Springer2020

Surveying the environmental life-cycle performance assessments: Practice and context at early building design stages

Marilyne Andersen, Emmanuel Rey, Thomas Bernard Paul Jusselme

The international greenhouse gas agreements call for mitigations in the building industry. Thus, the number of scientific publications about life-cycle performance assessment (LCPA) follows an exponential trend since the 2000s. However, previous surveys hi ...

2020

An unethical optimization principle

Anthony Christopher Davison

If an artificial intelligence aims to maximize risk-adjusted return, then under mild conditions it is disproportionately likely to pick an unethical strategy unless the objective function allows sufficiently for this risk. Even if the proportion eta of ava ...

ROYAL SOC2020