Publications related to Decision intelligence

Reliable data-driven decision-making through optimal transport

Decision-making permeates every aspect of human and societal development, from individuals' daily choices to the complex decisions made by communities and institutions. Central to effective decision-making is the discipline of optimization, which seeks th ...

EPFL2024

Machine learning-aided generative molecular design

Philippe Schwaller, Jeff Guo

Machine learning has provided a means to accelerate early-stage drug discovery by combining molecule generation and filtering steps in a single architecture that leverages the experience and design preferences of medicinal chemists. However, designing mach ...

Nature Portfolio2024

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization

Daniel Kuhn, Yifan Hu, Andreas Krause, Jie Wang

We introduce contextual stochastic bilevel optimization (CSBO) -- a stochastic bilevel optimization framework with the lower-level problem minimizing an expectation conditioned on some contextual information and the upper-level decision variable. This fram ...

2023

End-to-End Learning for Stochastic Optimization: A Bayesian Perspective

Daniel Kuhn, Tobias Sutter, Yves Rychener

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this an ...

2023

Interventionist estimands in event history analysis

Matias Janvin

The presence of competing events, such as death, makes it challenging to define causal effects on recurrent outcomes. In this thesis, I formalize causal inference for recurrent events, with and without competing events. I define several causal estimands an ...

EPFL2023

Methodology for selecting measurement points that optimize information gain for model updating

Ian Smith, Numa Joy Bertola

Information collected through sensor measurements has the potential to improve knowledge of complex-system behavior, leading to better decisions related to system management. In this situation, and particularly when using digital twins, the quality of sens ...

2023

Endogenous Energy Efficiency Improvement in Housing and Cement Sectors in Switzerland

Sergey Arzoyan

The reduction of energy consumption in the residential building stock and cement industry is a substantial component of the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. Therefore, it is vital to identify the potential for EEI in these two sectors. In this study, a new meth ...

EPFL2023

Safety Decision-Making for Laboratory Processes in Academia

Thierry Meyer, Anastasia Jung

There is a need for a tool that facilitates safety decision-making in the academic environment. As this environment is very different from that of industry or other public sectors, there is no information available on the factors that influence the decisio ...

2022

Overcoming decision paralysis—A digital twin for decision making in energy system design

François Maréchal, Julia Granacher, Tuong-Van Nguyen

The design of efficient energy systems, through the development of new technologies and the improvement of current ones, requires the use of rigorous process synthesis methods for generating and analysing design alternatives. We introduce a digital twin of ...

2022

Relatively Robust Decisions

Thomas Alois Weber

It is natural for humans to judge the outcome of a decision under uncertainty as a percentage of an ex-post optimal performance. We propose a robust decision-making framework based on a relative performance index. It is shown that if the decision maker’s p ...

2023

Decision Learning and Adaptation Over Multi-Task Networks

Ali H. Sayed

This paper studies the operation of multi-agent networks engaged in multi-task decision problems under the paradigm of simultaneous learning and adaptation. Two scenarios are considered:one in which a decision must be taken among multiple states of nature ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2021

A Pareto Dominance Principle for Data-Driven Optimization

Daniel Kuhn, Tobias Sutter

We propose a statistically optimal approach to construct data-driven decisions for stochastic optimization problems. Fundamentally, a data-driven decision is simply a function that maps the available training data to a feasible action. It can always be exp ...

2024

A Comparison of optimal measurement-system design with engineering judgement for bridge load testing

Ian Smith, Numa Joy Bertola

Due to conservative approaches in construction design and practice, infrastructure often has hidden reserve capacity. When quantified, this reserve has potential to improve decisions related to asset management. Field measurements, collected through load t ...

2021

Decision Framework to Balance Environmental, Technical, Logistical, and Economic Criteria When Designing Structures With Reused Components

Corentin Jean Dominique Fivet, Numa Joy Bertola, Célia Marine Küpfer, Jan Friedrich Georg Brütting

The reuse of structural components in new buildings has great potential to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction sector but remains uncommon practice. An obstacle to its wider implementation is the lack of robust assessment methods and decis ...

2021

A methodology to design measurement systems when multiple model classes are plausible

Ian Smith, Numa Joy Bertola, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham Pai

The management of existing civil infrastructure is challenging due to evolving functional requirements, aging and climate change. Civil infrastructure often has hidden reserve capacity because of conservative approaches used in design and during constructi ...

2021

Modeling infectious disease dynamics towards informed public health interventions, with applications on COVID-19 and cholera

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Emerging and existing infectious diseases pose a constant threat to individuals and communities across the world. In many cases, the burden of these diseases is preventable through public health interventions. However, taking the right decisions and design ...

EPFL2021

Optimal Adversarial Policies in the Multiplicative Learning System With a Malicious Expert

Negar Kiyavash, Seyed Jalal Etesami

We consider a learning system based on the conventional multiplicative weight ( MW) rule that combines experts' advice to predict a sequence of true outcomes. It is assumed that one of the experts is malicious and aims to impose the maximum loss on the sys ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2021

Analysis and Visualisation of Decision Paths towards Reaching Environmental Impact Targets at Early-Design Stage

Sergi Aguacil Moreno, Thomas Bernard Paul Jusselme, Émilie Nault

Environmental impact objectives are commonly found in building performance labels and rating schemes. Anticipating a building’s impact from the conceptual design stage and identifying decisions that do not compromise its chances of reaching these targets i ...

Universidade da Coruña2020

Disentangling the origins of confidence in speeded perceptual judgments through multimodal imaging

Dimitri Nestor Alice Van De Ville, Olaf Blanke, José del Rocio Millán Ruiz, Nathan Quentin Faivre, Inaki Asier Iturrate Gil, Michael Eric Anthony Pereira, Stéphanie Martin, Arnaud Marc Desvachez, Marco Wirthlin

The human capacity to compute the likelihood that a decision is correct—known as metacognition—has proven difficult to study in isolation as it usually cooccurs with decision making. Here, we isolated postdecisional from decisional contributions to metacog ...

2020

Measurement-system design for structural identification

Numa Joy Bertola

In developed countries, the management of existing civil infrastructure is challenging due to evolving functional requirements, aging and climate change. Due to conservative approaches in construction design and practice, infrastructure often has hidden re ...

EPFL2020