Publications related to Consensus forecast

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Euclid: The search for primordial features

Frédéric Courbin, Yiming Li, Georges Meylan, Yi Wang, Richard Massey, Fabio Finelli, Marcello Farina

Primordial features, in particular oscillatory signals, imprinted in the primordial power spectrum of density perturbations represent a clear window of opportunity for detecting new physics at high-energy scales. Future spectroscopic and photometric measur ...

Edp Sciences S A2024

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Benjamin Bejar Haro, Ekaterina Krymova, Ntorina Thanou, Nicola Parolini, Daniel Rodrigo Lopez, Andrea Kraus, Daniel Lopez, David Kraus, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning

Guillaume Romain Obozinski, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

On average every 2 years, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits extreme perturbations known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The impact of these events is not limited to the stratosphere: but they can also influence the weather at the surface of ...

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2023

Optimizing Sales Forecasting, Inventory, Pricing and Sourcing Decisions

Yara Kayyali El Alem

In this thesis we address various factors that contribute both theoretically and practically to mitigating supply demand mismatches. The thesis is composed of three chapters, where each chapter is an independent scientific paper. In the first paper, we dev ...

EPFL2023

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Ekaterina Krymova, Markus Scholz

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases an ...

Springernature2022

Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Fernando Porté Agel, Jiannong Fang, Lorenzo Donadio

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real ...

2021

Characterizing the Reserve Provision Capability Area of Active Distribution Networks: A Linear Robust Optimization Method

Fabrizio Sossan, Mokhtar Bozorg, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Mohsen Kalantar Neyestanaki

Distributed energy resources (DERs) installed in active distribution networks (ADNs) can be exploited to provide both active and reactive power reserves to the upper-layer grid (i.e., sub-transmission and transmission systems) at their connection point. Th ...

2021

Predicting spatial patterns of soil bacteria under current and future environmental conditions

Nicolas Jean Philippe Guex, Jan Roelof van der Meer, Marco Pagni, Aline Buri

Soil bacteria are largely missing from future biodiversity assessments hindering comprehensive forecasts of ecosystem changes. Soil bacterial communities are expected to be more strongly driven by pH and less by other edaphic and climatic factors. Thus, al ...

2021

Model based forecasting for demand response strategies

Lorenzo Nespoli

The incremental deployment of decentralized renewable energy sources in the distribution grid is triggering a paradigm change for the power sector. This shift from a centralized structure with big power plants to a decentralized scenario of distributed ene ...

EPFL2019

Joint Fusion Learning of Multiple Time Series Prediction

Orçun Gümüs

Accurate traffic density estimations is essential for numerous purposes like the developing successful transit policies or to forecast future traffic conditions for navigation. Current developments in the machine learning and computer systems bring the tra ...

2019

Information-gap decision theory (IGDT): a new promising method for management of uncertainties in hydropower projects: case study

Anton Schleiss, Felix Oberrauch

The design of hydropower is determined by estimates and long-term forecasts. These forecasts and estimates are highly uncertain and make performance evaluation and design choices challenging. Effective values deviating from the estimates can have a signifi ...

Hydropower&Dams, Aqua Media International2018

Probabilistic Prediction and Forecast of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration on the Upper Yangtze River

Mário Jorge Rodrigues Pereira Da Franca, José Pedro Gamito de Saldanha Calado Matos, Xin Lu

Sediment transport in suspension can represent more than 90% of a river's total annual flux of sediment. In the case of the Yangtze River, more than 99% of the sediment supplied to the sea is suspended load. Suspended sediment is thus an important componen ...

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION2018

Hydropower Design under Uncertainties

Felix Oberrauch

The design of hydropower is determined by estimates and long-term forecasts. These forecasts and estimates are highly uncertain and make performance evaluation and design choices challenging. Performance evaluation of hydropower projects is affected by a n ...

EPFL2017

Model-free computation of ultra-short-term prediction intervals of solar irradiance

Jean-Yves Le Boudec, Mario Paolone, Dimitri Torregrossa

We propose an ultra-short-term dynamic interval predictor (DIP) of solar irradiance. Our DIP relies on experimentally observed correlations between the derivative of the solar irradiance and the forecast error in the next time-step. The main originalities ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2016

Cluster-based Aggregate Forecasting for Residential Electricity Demand using Smart Meter Data

Karl Aberer, Tri Kurniawan Wijaya, Matteo Vasirani, Samuel François Roger Joseph Humeau

While electricity demand forecasting literature has focused on large, industrial, and national demand, this paper focuses on short-term (1 and 24 hour ahead) electricity demand forecasting for residential customers at the individual and aggregate level. Si ...

2015

A Non-Parametric Approach to Demand Forecasting in Revenue Management

Shadi Sharif Azadeh

In revenue management, the profitability of the inventory and pricing decisions rests on the accuracy of demand forecasts. However, whenever a product is no longer available, true demand may differ from registered bookings, thus inducing a negative bias in ...

2015