Publications related to Market risk

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

On the Generalization of Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum

Volkan Cevher, Kimon Antonakopoulos

While momentum-based accelerated variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are widely used when training machine learning models, there is little theoretical understanding on the generalization error of such methods. In this work, we first show that th ...

Microtome Publishing2024

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

Chance-Constrained Trajectory Planning With Multimodal Environmental Uncertainty

Maryam Kamgarpour, Kai Ren

We tackle safe trajectory planning under Gaussian mixture model (GMM) uncertainty. Specifically, we use a GMM to model the multimodal behaviors of obstacles' uncertain states. Then, we develop a mixed-integer conic approximation to the chance-constrained t ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2022

Gradient-based optimisation of the conditional-value-at-risk using the multi-level Monte Carlo method

Fabio Nobile, Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method ...

2023

Quantifying uncertain system outputs via the multi-level Monte Carlo method --- distribution and robustness measures

Fabio Nobile, Sebastian Krumscheid, Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential models by the MLM ...

2023

Multi-Level Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification and Risk-Averse Optimisation

Sundar Subramaniam Ganesh

This work aims to study the effects of wind uncertainties in civil engineering structural design. Optimising the design of a structure for safety or operability without factoring in these uncertainties can result in a design that is not robust to these per ...

EPFL2022

On Approximations of Data-Driven Chance Constrained Programs over Wasserstein Balls

Daniel Kuhn, Zhi Chen, Wolfram Wiesemann

Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters affec ...

2023

Crash test-based assessment of injury risks for adults and children when colliding with personal mobility devices and service robots

Aude Billard, Diego Felipe Paez Granados

Autonomous mobility devices such as transport, cleaning, and delivery robots, hold a massive economic and social benefit. However, their deployment should not endanger bystanders, particularly vulnerable populations such as children and older adults who ar ...

Nature Publishing Group2022

Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach

Stéphane Joost

Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans a ...

Nature Portfolio2021

Essays in Banking and Financial Regulation

Susanne Johanna Petronella Léonie Vissers

This thesis examines how banks choose their optimal capital structure and cash reserves in the presence of regulatory measures. The first chapter, titled Bank Capital Structure and Tail Risk, presents a bank capital structure model in which bank assets ...

EPFL2021

Covid-19 contact tracing: efficacy and privacy

This article assesses the risk-risk trade-off between privacy and efficacy that the use of contact tracing apps entails. It argues for the use of privacy-preserving apps, but highlights potential weaknesses and cautions against allowing digital tracing to ...

EPFL2020

Impact of facade details on the reliability of performance-based decisions for early-stage neighborhood designs

Minu Agarwal

Neighborhood-scale projects often commence with the conceptualization of several massing-schemes as potential design solutions. There is growing interest in using building performance simulation (BPS) to evaluate and rank such conceptual stage schemes in o ...

EPFL2020

Stochastic approximation methods for PDE constrained optimal control problems with uncertain parameters

Matthieu Claude Martin

This thesis work focuses on optimal control of partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain parameters, treated as a random variables. In particular, we assume that the random parameters are not observable and look for a deterministic control which ...

EPFL2019

Spatial Risk Measures and Rate of Spatial Diversification

Erwan Fabrice Koch

An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a corresponding set of axioms ...

2019

Three Problems of Liquidity under Asymmetric Information

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré

This thesis develops models for three problems of liquidity under asymmetric information. In the chapter "Disclosures, Rollover Risk, and Debt Runs" I build a model of dynamic debt runs without perfect information in order to understand the impact of asset ...

EPFL2019

Supervised Learning Under Distributed Features

Ali H. Sayed, Bicheng Ying, Kun Yuan

This paper studies the problem of learning under both large datasets and large-dimensional feature space scenarios. The feature information is assumed to be spread across agents in a network, where each agent observes some of the features. Through local co ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2019

Community-based landslide risk reduction: a review of a Red Cross soil bioengineering for resilience program in Honduras

Silvia Hostettler, Antonio D'Acunzi

Effective long-term participation of communities in disaster risk reduction measures in landslide-prone areas continues to be a challenge. This study aims to evaluate the extent to which community-based soil-bioengineering techniques allow for effective mi ...

2019

Three Essays in Banking and Finance

Damien Olivier Klossner

This thesis develops three models that study the motivation of various agents to take on debt, and the impact that excessive financial leverage can have on social welfare. In the chapter "Short-term Bank Leverage and the Value of Liquid Reserves", the ince ...

EPFL2019