Publications related to Bayesian statistics

Relaxing the Additivity Constraints in Decentralized No-Regret High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorith ...

2024

Accelerometry as a tool for measuring the effects of transcranial magnetic stimulation

Pierre Theopistos Vassiliadis, Julie Duqué

Objective: We predicted that accelerometry would be a viable alternative to electromyography (EMG) for assessing fundamental Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) measurements (e.g. Resting Motor Threshold (RMT), recruitment curves, latencies). New Metho ...

Elsevier2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Stochastic pairwise preference convergence in Bayesian agents

Max-Olivier Hongler

Beliefs inform the behaviour of forward-thinking agents in complex environments. Recently, sequential Bayesian inference has emerged as a mechanism to study belief formation among agents adapting to dynamical conditions. However, we lack critical theory to ...

2024

Accretion Disk Size and Updated Time-delay Measurements in the Gravitationally Lensed Quasar SDSS J165043.44+425149.3

Frédéric Courbin, Martin Raoul Robert Millon

We analyze variability in 15-season optical lightcurves from the doubly imaged lensed quasar SDSS J165043.44+425149.3 (SDSS1650), comprising five seasons of monitoring data from the Maidanak Observatory (277 nights in total, including the two seasons of da ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Serial Dependence in Human Visual Perception and Decision-Making

Gizay Ceylan

Decisions about a current visual stimulus are systematically biased by recently encountered stimuli, a phenomenon known as serial dependence. In human vision, for instance, we tend to report the features of current images as more similar â i.e., an attra ...

EPFL2024

Noise-induced transitions past the onset of a steady symmetry-breaking bifurcation: The case of the sudden expansion

François Gallaire, Edouard Boujo, Yves-Marie François Ducimetière

We consider fluid flows, governed by the Navier-Stokes equations, subject to a steady symmetry-breaking bifurcation and forced by a weak noise acting on a slow timescale. By generalizing the multiple-scale weakly nonlinear expansion technique employed in t ...

2024

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Robust Outlier Rejection for 3D Registration with Variational Bayes

Mathieu Salzmann, Zheng Dang, Jiancheng Yang, Zhen Wei, Haobo Jiang

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier f ...

Ieee Computer Soc2023

Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks

Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. Here, we develop a joint model for the occurrence intensity and t ...

2023

Bayesian Optimization for Chemical Reactions

Philippe Schwaller, Jeff Guo, Bojana Rankovic

Reaction optimization is challenging and traditionally delegated to domain experts who iteratively pro-pose increasingly optimal experiments. Problematically, the reaction landscape is complex and often requires hundreds of experiments to reach convergence ...

Swiss Chemical Soc2023

Bayesian Inversion for Nonlinear Imaging Models Using Deep Generative Priors

Michaël Unser, Thanh-An Michel Pham, Pakshal Narendra Bohra, Jonathan Yuelin Dong

Most modern imaging systems incorporate a computational pipeline to infer the image of interest from acquired measurements. The Bayesian approach to solve such ill-posed inverse problems involves the characterization of the posterior distribution of the im ...

2022

A Bayesian data assimilation framework for lake 3D hydrodynamic models with a physics-preserving particle filtering method using SPUX-MITgcm v1

Damien Bouffard, Camille Roland Marie Minaudo, Cintia Luz Ramon Casanas, Firat Ozdemir

We present a Bayesian inference for a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva with stochastic weather forcing and high-frequency observational datasets. This is achieved by coupling a Bayesian inference package, SPUX, with a hydrodynamics packa ...

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH2022

Improved framework to estimate travel time and derived distributions in hydrological control volumes

Mitra Asadollahi

Crossing properties of soil saturation, defined as the duration and excursion of soil saturation below and above certain thresholds, are key variables to ecosystem functioning and evolution by primarily influencing the plant and soil microbes physiological ...

EPFL2022

Bayesian Decision Making in Groups is Hard

Jan Hazla

We study the computations that Bayesian agents undertake when exchanging opinions over a network. The agents act repeatedly on their private information and take myopic actions that maximize their expected utility according to a fully rational posterior be ...

INFORMS2021

A Variational Inference Approach to Learning Multivariate Wold Processes

Patrick Thiran, Matthias Grossglauser, Negar Kiyavash, Seyed Jalal Etesami, William Trouleau

Temporal point-processes are often used for mathematical modeling of sequences of discrete events with asynchronous timestamps. We focus on a class of temporal point-process models called multivariate Wold processes (MWP). These processes are well suited t ...

MICROTOME PUBLISHING2021

Discrete-Choice Mining of Social Processes

Victor Kristof

Poor decisions and selfish behaviors give rise to seemingly intractable global problems, such as the lack of transparency in democratic processes, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. However, people are more predict ...

EPFL2021

Bayesian Methods for the Identification of Distribution Networks

Giancarlo Ferrari Trecate, Jean-Sébastien Hubert Brouillon, Pulkit Nahata

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level, necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of the admittance matrix, capturing the topology and line param ...

IEEE2021

Drift Estimation of Multiscale Diffusions Based on Filtered Data

Assyr Abdulle, Giacomo Garegnani, Andrea Zanoni, Grigorios A. Pavliotis

We study the problem of drift estimation for two-scale continuous time series. We set ourselves in the framework of overdamped Langevin equations, for which a single-scale surrogate homogenized equation exists. In this setting, estimating the drift coeffic ...

2023

Learning Self-Exciting Temporal Point Processes Under Noisy Observations

William Trouleau

Understanding the diffusion patterns of sequences of interdependent events is a central question for a variety of disciplines. Temporal point processes are a class of elegant and powerful models of such sequences; these processes have become popular across ...

EPFL2021