Publications related to Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Deciphering the nature of cell state transitions in single cells using quantitative modeling of temporal dynamics

Cells are the smallest operational units of living systems. Through synthesis of various biomolecules and exchange of signals with the environment, cells tightly regulate their composition to realize a specific functional state. The transformation of a cel ...

EPFL2024

Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks

Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. Here, we develop a joint model for the occurrence intensity and t ...

2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Methodology for selecting measurement points that optimize information gain for model updating

Ian Smith, Numa Joy Bertola

Information collected through sensor measurements has the potential to improve knowledge of complex-system behavior, leading to better decisions related to system management. In this situation, and particularly when using digital twins, the quality of sens ...

2023

TOCOSMO VIII. A key test of systematics in the hierarchical method of time-delay cosmography

Frédéric Courbin

The largest source of systematic errors in the time-delay cosmography method likely arises from the lens model mass distribution, where an inaccurate choice of model could in principle bias the value of H-0. A Bayesian hierarchical framework has been propo ...

EDP SCIENCES S A2022

BIGPrior: Towards Decoupling Learned Prior Hallucination and Data Fidelity in Image Restoration

Sabine Süsstrunk, Majed El Helou

Classic image-restoration algorithms use a variety of priors, either implicitly or explicitly. Their priors are hand-designed and their corresponding weights are heuristically assigned. Hence, deep learning methods often produce superior image restoration ...

2022

HIERARCHICAL MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR BAYESIAN INVERSE PROBLEMS

Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

This thesis is devoted to the construction, analysis, and implementation of two types of hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the solution of large-scale Bayesian Inverse Problems (BIP). The first hierarchical method we present is base ...

EPFL2022

Bayesian Methods for the Identification of Distribution Networks

Giancarlo Ferrari Trecate, Jean-Sébastien Hubert Brouillon, Pulkit Nahata

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level, necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of the admittance matrix, capturing the topology and line param ...

IEEE2021

Bayesian Decision Making in Groups is Hard

Jan Hazla

We study the computations that Bayesian agents undertake when exchanging opinions over a network. The agents act repeatedly on their private information and take myopic actions that maximize their expected utility according to a fully rational posterior be ...

INFORMS2021

Stabilization of cultural innovations depends on population density: Testing an epidemiological model of cultural evolution against a global dataset of rock art sites and climate-based estimates of ancient population densities

John Richard Walker, Taylor Howard Newton, Francesco Casalegno

Demographic models of human cultural evolution have high explanatory potential but weak empirical support. Here we use a global dataset of rock art sites and climate and genetics-based estimates of ancient population densities to test a new model based on ...

2021

Learning Self-Exciting Temporal Point Processes Under Noisy Observations

William Trouleau

Understanding the diffusion patterns of sequences of interdependent events is a central question for a variety of disciplines. Temporal point processes are a class of elegant and powerful models of such sequences; these processes have become popular across ...

EPFL2021

Discrete-Choice Mining of Social Processes

Victor Kristof

Poor decisions and selfish behaviors give rise to seemingly intractable global problems, such as the lack of transparency in democratic processes, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. However, people are more predict ...

EPFL2021

Bayesian modeling of brain function and behavior

Maya Anna Jastrzebowska

The application of Bayesian modeling techniques is increasingly common in neuroscience due to the coherent and principled way in which the paradigm deals with uncertainty. The Bayesian framework is particularly valuable in the context of complex, ill-posed ...

EPFL2020

Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures

Claudio Grimaldi

One of the major goals for astronomy in the next decades is the remote search for biosignatures (i.e., the spectroscopic evidence of biological activity) in exoplanets. Here we adopt a Bayesian statistical framework to discuss the implications of such futu ...

National Academy of Sciences2020

TDCOSMO. IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography - joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

Frédéric Courbin, Martin Raoul Robert Millon, Aymeric Alexandre Galan, Adriano Agnello

The H0LiCOWcollaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73 :3+1:7 1:8 km s 1 Mpc 1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standar ...

EDP SCIENCES S A2020

Rapid Recalibration of Peri-Personal Space: Psychophysical, Electrophysiological, and Neural Network Modeling Evidence

Olaf Blanke, Bruno Herbelin, Tommaso Enrico Bertoni, Andrea Serino, Jean-Paul Noel, Elisa Pellencin

Interactions between individuals and the environment occur within the peri-personal space (PPS). The encoding of this space plastically adapts to bodily constraints and stimuli features. However, these remapping effects have not been demonstrated on an ada ...

2020

The Learnability of the Grammar of Jazz: Bayesian Inference of Hierarchical Structures in Harmony

Daniel Harasim

Musical grammar describes a set of principles that are used to understand and interpret the structure of a piece according to a musical style. The main topic of this study is grammar induction for harmony --- the process of learning structural principles f ...

EPFL2020

Human biases in body measurement estimation

Robert West, Venkata Rama Kiran Garimella

Body measurements, including weight and height, are key indicators of health. Being able to visually assess body measurements reliably is a step towards increased awareness of overweight and obesity and is thus important for public health. Nevertheless it ...

2020

A Bayesian Model of Individual Differences and Flexibility in Inductive Reasoning for Categorization of Examples

Pierre Dillenbourg, Jennifer Kaitlyn Olsen, Louis Pierre Faucon

Inductive reasoning is an important educational practice but can be difficult for teachers to support in the classroom due to the high level of preparation and classroom time needed to choose the teaching materials that challenge students' current views. I ...

ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY2020

Exploration and Inference in Spatial Extremes Using Empirical Basis Functions

Emeric Rolland Georges Thibaud

Statistical methods for inference on spatial extremes of large datasets are yet to be developed. Motivated by standard dimension reduction techniques used in spatial statistics, we propose an approach based on empirical basis functions to explore and model ...

SPRINGER2019