Publications related to Likelihood function

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Siyu Chen, Alfredo Glioti

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

TIC-TAC: A Framework for Improved Covariance Estimation in Deep Heteroscedastic Regression

Mathieu Salzmann, Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Megh Hiren Shukla

Deep heteroscedastic regression involves jointly optimizing the mean and covariance of the predicted distribution using the negative log-likelihood. However, recent works show that this may result in sub-optimal convergence due to the challenges associated ...

2024

OASIS: An integrated optimisation framework for activity scheduling

Janody Pougala

Activity-based models offer the potential for a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. Based on the fundamental assumption that travel demand is derived from the need to do activities, they are flexible tools that aim ...

EPFL2024

Relaxing the Additivity Constraints in Decentralized No-Regret High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization

Patrick Thiran

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorith ...

2024

Recovering Static and Time-Varying Communities Using Persistent Edges

Maximilien Claude Robert Dreveton

This article focuses on spectral methods for recovering communities in temporal networks. In the case of fixed communities, spectral clustering on the simple time-aggregated graph (i.e., the weighted graph formed by the sum of the interactions over all tem ...

Ieee Computer Soc2024

Inferring free-energy barriers and kinetic rates from molecular dynamics via underdamped Langevin models

Sara Bonella, Fabio Pietrucci, David Daniel Girardier

Rare events include many of the most interesting transformation processes in condensed matter, from phase transitions to biomolecular conformational changes to chemical reactions. Access to the corresponding mechanisms, free-energy landscapes and kinetic r ...

Aip Publishing2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Wind, Hail, and Climate Extremes: Modelling and Attribution Studies for Environmental Data

Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

This thesis presents work at the junction of statistics and climate science. We first provide methodology for use by climate scientists when performing fast event attribution using extreme value theory, and then describe two interdisciplinary projects in c ...

EPFL2023

OASIS: Optimisation-based Activity Scheduling with Integrated Simultaneous choice dimensions

Michel Bierlaire, Timothy Michael Hillel, Janody Pougala

Activity-based models offer the potential of a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. However, activity-based models used both in research and practice have often relied on applying sequential choice models between sub ...

2023

Analysis of a Class of Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms Based on Independent Metropolis–Hastings

Fabio Nobile, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo(ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis--Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function involves solving ...

2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

Time vs. Truth: Age-Distortion Tradeoffs and Strategies for Distributed Inference

Yunus Inan

In 1948, Claude Shannon laid the foundations of information theory, which grew out of a study to find the ultimate limits of source compression, and of reliable communication. Since then, information theory has proved itself not only as a quest to find the ...

EPFL2023

Maximum likelihood bolometry for ASDEX upgrade experiments

Olivier Claude Martin Février, Riccardo Rossi

Bolometry is an essential diagnostic for calculating the power balances and for the understanding of different physical aspects of tokamak experiments. The reconstruction method based on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle, developed initially for JET, h ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2023

Measurement of the top quark mass using a profile likelihood approach with the lepton plus jets final states in proton-proton collisions at √s=13TeV

Matthias Finger, Konstantin Androsov, Qian Wang, Jan Steggemann, Anna Mascellani, Yiming Li, Varun Sharma, Xin Chen, Arvind Shah, Rakesh Chawla, Matteo Galli, Jian Wang, João Miguel das Neves Duarte, Tagir Aushev, Matthias Wolf, Yi Zhang, Lei Zhang, Tian Cheng, Yixing Chen, Werner Lustermann, Andromachi Tsirou, Alexis Kalogeropoulos, Andrea Rizzi, Ioannis Papadopoulos, Paolo Ronchese, Hua Zhang, Leonardo Cristella, Siyuan Wang, Jessica Prisciandaro, Tao Huang, David Vannerom, Michele Bianco, Sebastiana Gianì, Sun Hee Kim, Davide Di Croce, Kun Shi, Wei Shi, Abhisek Datta, Jian Zhao, Federica Legger, Gabriele Grosso, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Bimanual dynamic grabbing and tossing of objects onto a moving target

Aude Billard, Michael Bosongo Bombile

Bimanual grabbing and tossing of packages onto trays or conveyor belts remains a human activity in the industry. For robots, such a dynamic task requires coordination between two arms and fast adaptation abilities when the tossing target is moving and subj ...

Elsevier2023

Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks

Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. Here, we develop a joint model for the occurrence intensity and t ...

2023

Economic Effect of Patents and the Patent System: Insights from Linked Patent-Product Data

George Abi Younes

This thesis investigates the economic effect of patents and the patent system through the lens of patent commercialisation. The thesis is composed of four chapters, where each chapter is an independent scientific paper. In the first chapter, we present a ...

EPFL2023

Learning new physics from an imperfect machine

Raffaele Tito D'Agnolo, Andrea Wulzer

We show how to deal with uncertainties on the Standard Model predictions in an agnostic new physics search strategy that exploits artificial neural networks. Our approach builds directly on the specific Maximum Likelihood ratio treatment of uncertainties a ...

SPRINGER2022

Improved Inference On Risk Measures For Univariate Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Léo Raymond-Belzile

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether higher-order approxima ...

INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS-IMS2022

VL4Pose: Active Learning Through Out-Of-Distribution Detection For Pose Estimation

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Megh Hiren Shukla

Advances in computing have enabled widespread access to pose estimation, creating new sources of data streams. Unlike mock set-ups for data collection, tapping into these data streams through on-device active learning allows us to directly sample from the ...

BMVA Press2022