Publications related to Likelihoodist statistics

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Siyu Chen, Alfredo Glioti

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

Inferring free-energy barriers and kinetic rates from molecular dynamics via underdamped Langevin models

Sara Bonella, Fabio Pietrucci, David Daniel Girardier

Rare events include many of the most interesting transformation processes in condensed matter, from phase transitions to biomolecular conformational changes to chemical reactions. Access to the corresponding mechanisms, free-energy landscapes and kinetic r ...

Aip Publishing2023

Learning new physics from an imperfect machine

Raffaele Tito D'Agnolo, Andrea Wulzer

We show how to deal with uncertainties on the Standard Model predictions in an agnostic new physics search strategy that exploits artificial neural networks. Our approach builds directly on the specific Maximum Likelihood ratio treatment of uncertainties a ...

SPRINGER2022

A Maximum-Likelihood-Based Two-User Receiver for LoRa Chirp Spread-Spectrum Modulation

Andreas Peter Burg, Alexios Konstantinos Balatsoukas Stimming, Orion Afisiadis, Joachim Tobias Tapparel, Mathieu Pierre Xhonneux

Long Range (LoRa) is an emerging low-power wide-area network technology offering long-range wireless connectivity to Internet of Things (IoT) devices. For energy efficiency reasons, LoRa end nodes implement a nonslotted ALOHA multiple access scheme to tran ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2022

Contributions to Likelihood-Based Modelling of Extreme Values

Léo Raymond-Belzile

xtreme value analysis is concerned with the modelling of extreme events such as floods and heatwaves, which can have large impacts. Statistical modelling can be useful to better assess risks even if, due to scarcity of measurements, there is inherently ver ...

EPFL2019

F-BLEAU: Fast Black-box Leakage Estimation

Giovanni Cherubin

We consider the problem of measuring how much a system reveals about its secret inputs. We work in the black-box setting: we assume no prior knowledge of the system's internals, and we run the system for choices of secrets and measure its leakage from the ...

IEEE2019

Sequential model identification of reaction systems-The missing path between the incremental and simultaneous approaches

Dominique Bonvin, Julien Léo Billeter, Sriniketh Srinivasan

Modeling chemical reaction systems is an important but complex task. The identified kinetic model must be able to explain all the underlying rate processes such as chemical reactions and heat and mass transfers. Traditionally, the modeling task is carried ...

2019

Estimation of fatigue S-N curves of welded joints using advanced probabilistic approach

Alain Nussbaumer

This paper provides a new advanced probabilistic approach for reliable estimation of the fatigue characteristic S-N curves of welded joints both for constant amplitude (CA) and variable amplitude (VA) loading conditions. The presented approach, which is re ...

Elsevier2017

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation

Rudolf Haraksim

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likeliho ...

Elsevier Ireland Ltd2017

A Bayesian view of doubly robust causal inference

Léo Raymond-Belzile

In causal inference the effect of confounding may be controlled using regression adjustment in an outcome model, propensity score adjustment, inverse probability of treatment weighting or a combination of these. Approaches based on modelling the treatment ...

Oxford University Press2016

MAGIC observations of the February 2014 flare of 1ES 1011+496 and ensuing constraint of the EBL density

Thomas Günther Bretz

Context. During February-March 2014, the MAGIC telescopes observed the high-frequency peaked BL Lac 1ES 1011 + 496 (z = 0.212) in flaring state at very-high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV). The flux reached a level of more than ten times higher than any previous ...

Edp Sciences S A2016

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

Enrico Bertuzzo, Theo Baracchini

Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an unders ...

2017

Score Calibration in Face Recognition

Sébastien Marcel

This paper presents an evaluation of verification and calibration performance of a face recognition system based on inter-session variability modeling. As an extension to the calibration through linear transformation of scores, categorical calibration is i ...

2014

Bayesian inference from composite likelihoods, with an application to spatial extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison

Composite likelihoods are increasingly used in applications where the full likelihood is analytically unknown or computationally prohibitive. Although some frequentist properties of the maximum composite likelihood estimator are akin to those of the maximu ...

Academia Sinica, Institute of Statistical Science2012

Robust Parameter Estimation for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

Sonja Rieder

In this thesis, we treat robust estimation for the parameters of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which are the mean, the variance, and the friction. We start by considering classical maximum likelihood estimation. For the simulation study, where we also in ...

EPFL2012

Simultaneous or incremental identification of reaction systems ?

Dominique Bonvin, Julien Léo Billeter, Sriniketh Srinivasan

Identification of kinetic models is essential for monitoring, control and optimization of industrial processes. Robust kinetic models are often based on first-principles and described by differential equations. Identification of reaction kinetics, namely r ...

2012

Stratégies de compromis pour l'estimation des paramètres de régression et pour la classification floue

Nicolas Fournier

Model specification is an integral part of any statistical inference problem. Several model selection techniques have been developed in order to determine which model is the best one among a list of possible candidates. Another way to deal with this questi ...

EPFL2011

Geostatistics of Extremes : A Composite Likelihood Approach

Mehdi Gholam

Extreme climate events have been investigated by many researchers in recent decades, and statisticians too have developed statistical tools capable of dealing with them. Although extreme value theory has been extensively developed and used in modelling eve ...

EPFL2010

Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes

Simone Padoan

The last decade has seen max-stable processes emerge as a common tool for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes However, their application is complicated due to the unavailability of the multivariate density function and so likehhood-based methods r ...

American Statistical Association2010

Multimodel Structural Performance Monitoring

Ian Smith, James-Alexandre Goulet

Measurements from load tests may lead to numerical models that better reflect structural behavior. This kind of system identification is not straightforward due to important uncertainties in measurement and models. Moreover, since system identification is ...

2010