Publications related to Operational risk

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

Quartiers rhodaniens en transition

Sara Sonia Formery Regazzoni

Over the course of history, the relationship between cities and their waters has shown different gradients of interweaving, marked by cycles of bonding and distancing. Following a period of complete neglect of urban watercourses, the versatile, multifacete ...

EPFL2024

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Greening the Swiss National Bank's Portfolio

Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Eric Jondeau

Central banks are increasingly concerned about climate-related risks and want to ensure that the financial system is resilient to them. As they integrate these risks into financial stability monitoring, they also discuss how to apply environmental criteria ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

Bayes Security: A Not So Average Metric

Carmela González Troncoso, Giovanni Cherubin

Security system designers favor worst-case security metrics, such as those derived from differential privacy (DP), due to the strong guarantees they provide. On the downside, these guarantees result in a high penalty on the system's performance. In this pa ...

IEEE2023

Challenging the Assumptions: Rethinking Privacy, Bias, and Security in Machine Learning

Bogdan Kulynych

Predictive models based on machine learning (ML) offer a compelling promise: bringing clarity and structure to complex natural and social environments. However, the use of ML poses substantial risks related to the privacy of their training data as well as ...

EPFL2023

Combining European and US risk prediction models with polygenic risk scores to refine cardiovascular prevention: the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus Study

Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball, Stéphane Fournier, Roxane De La Harpe

Lay Summary The aim of this study is to determine whether using polygenic risk scores improves the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk when combined with clinical scores currently recommended by European and US guidelines on cardiovas ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

Numerical simulation of the fate, transport and public health risks of enteric viruses in Lake Geneva

Chaojie Li

Lakes are a fundamental feature of nature with brilliance, profoundness and complexity. Various of physical, chemical and biological changes take place three dimensionally in deep lakes, regulated by complicated boundary conditions. To understand and predi ...

EPFL2023

Dynamic pulse scheduling in ASDEX Upgrade: Disruption avoidance and investigation of the H-Mode density limit

Federico Alberto Alfredo Felici, Alessandro Pau, Bernhard Sieglin

Operation of a tokamak device requires the coordinated operation of a multitude of systems. The sequence of operations during a discharge is both too complex and fast for human interaction. A common way of operation is a predefined sequence of operations w ...

2023

Surrogate modelling for seismic collapse risk assessment of steel moment resisting frames

Dimitrios Lignos, Andronikos Skiadopoulos, Nenad Bijelic

With the overall goal of reducing the numerical burden of uncertainty quantification involved in seismic risk assessments, this paper examines opportunities for assessment of seismic collapse capacity and risk using data-driven surrogates as a complement t ...

2023

Predicting type 2 diabetes risk before and after solid organ transplantation using polygenic scores in a Danish cohort

Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can be multifactorial where both genetics and environmental factors play a role. We aimed to investigate the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) in the prediction of pre-transplant T2DM and post-transplant diabetes mellitus ( ...

Frontiers Media Sa2023

Le dehors de toute fête : une sociologie urbaine de la sécurité au Montreux Jazz Festival

Lucien Jean Delley

This thesis is the result of four years of investigation carried out as « security coordinator » of the Monteux Jazz Festival. From this operational commitment, I sought to understand : how the festival is integrated into the city ; what affects the safety ...

EPFL2022

Crash test-based assessment of injury risks for adults and children when colliding with personal mobility devices and service robots

Aude Billard, Diego Felipe Paez Granados

Autonomous mobility devices such as transport, cleaning, and delivery robots, hold a massive economic and social benefit. However, their deployment should not endanger bystanders, particularly vulnerable populations such as children and older adults who ar ...

Nature Publishing Group2022

A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications

Puneet Pasricha

The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and hence play a sig ...

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2022

Patron-Driven Acquisition et Evidence-Based Acquisition: Comment implémenter ces modèles afin d’étendre l’offre documentaire dans une bibliothèque ?

Marion Favre, Manon Velasco

Nowadays, usage-based acquisition models for e-books, as PDA and EBA, are quite spread and allow libraries to offer wider collections, without acquiring them. A PDA with Ebook Central was implemented in 2019 and a first EBA with Wiley in 2021. The EPFL Lib ...

Liège Université Library2023

Regularized Diffusion Adaptation via Conjugate Smoothing

Ali H. Sayed, Stefan Vlaski

The purpose of this article is to develop and study a decentralized strategy for Pareto optimization of an aggregate cost consisting of regularized risks. Each risk is modeled as the expectation of some loss function with unknown probability distribution, ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2022

Essays in Banking and Financial Regulation

Susanne Johanna Petronella Léonie Vissers

This thesis examines how banks choose their optimal capital structure and cash reserves in the presence of regulatory measures. The first chapter, titled Bank Capital Structure and Tail Risk, presents a bank capital structure model in which bank assets ...

EPFL2021

A risk-risk assessment framework for solar radiation modification

Concern about the increasingly high-probability, high-impact risks posed by global warming is driving the exploration of new techniques to artificially cool the planet through an approach known as solar radiation modification (SRM). Would the world be bett ...

International Risk Governance Center2021

Using stratospheric aerosol injection to alleviate global warming: when?

Marie-Valentine Renée Agnès Florin

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a type of solar radiation modification (SRM), has the potential to reduce global warming caused by excessive greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, there is currently widespread opposition to it, because deployi ...

EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC).2021

Who Is Listening? Spokesperson Effect on Communicating Social and Physical Distancing Measures During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Robert West, Andreas Oliver Spitz, Ahmad Abu-Akel

Effective communication during a pandemic, such as the current COVID-19 crisis, can save lives. At the present time, social and physical distancing measures are the lead strategy in combating the spread of COVID-19. In this study, a survey was administered ...

Frontiers Media2021