Publications related to Basic reproduction number

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Back-to-Africa introductions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the main cause of tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Jacques Fellay, Zhi Ming Xu

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC populat ...

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2023

Optimizing the mitigation of epidemic spreading through targeted adoption of contact tracing apps

Andrea Santoro

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive for a virus can help slow down an epidemi ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2022

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks

Gergely Odor

It is a fundamental question in disease modeling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. One important goal has been to find the seed configuration, which infects the most individuals. Although the id ...

2021

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R-eff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associ ...

Nature Research2021

A mathematical dashboard for the analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic data

Alfio Quarteroni, Luca Dede', Nicola Parolini

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at ) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our analysis provides an immediate appreciation of t ...

Wiley2021

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Marcel Salathé

Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing con ...

Nature Research2021

Flocking-enhanced social contagion

Ignacio Pagonabarraga Mora

Populations of mobile agents-animal groups, robot swarms, or crowds of people-self-organize into a large diversity of states as a result of information exchanges with their surroundings. While in many situations of interest the motion of the agents is driv ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2020

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland

Andrea Rinaldo, Jacques Fellay, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by the cantons and the federal government between 28 February and 20 March 2020. Estimates of the impact of these inter ...

2020

Risk Perception and Epidemics in Complex Computer Networks

Emanuele Massaro

We present a self-organised method for quickly obtaining the epidemic threshold of infective processes on networks. Starting from simple percolation models, we introduce the possibility that the effective infection probability is affected by the perception ...

IEEE2018

The temporal patterns of disease severity and prevalence in schistosomiasis

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Schistosomiasis is one of the most widespread public health problems in the world. In this work, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model for its transmission and dynamics with the purpose of explaining both intra-and inter-annual fluctuations of disease ...

American Institute of Physics2015

Glucose- but Not Rice-Based Oral Rehydration Therapy Enhances the Production of Virulence Determinants in the Human Pathogen Vibrio cholerae

Andrea Rinaldo, Melanie Blokesch, Enrico Bertuzzo, Flavio Finger, Juliane Kühn, Marino Gatto

Despite major attempts to prevent cholera transmission, millions of people worldwide still must address this devastating disease. Cholera research has so far mainly focused on the causative agent, the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, or on disease treatment, but ...

2014

Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto

Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit ...

Natl Acad Sciences2012

Modelling human movement in cholera spreading along fluvial systems

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto

We propose an important extension of a previously studied, spatially explicit and hydrology-driven, model of cholera spreading. Our reformulation concerns the role of different modelizations of human movement on the overall dynamics of the epidemics, which ...

2011

On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Marino Gatto

We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio c ...

2010

Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Amos Maritan

We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of ...

American Physical Society2010