A PET-Based Nomogram for Oropharyngeal Cancers

Purpose: In the context of locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer (LAOC) treated with definitive radiotherapy (RT) (combined with chemotherapy or cetuximab), the aims of this study were: (1) to identify PET-FDG parameters correlated with overall survival (OS) from a first cohort of patients; then (2) to compute a prognostic score; and (3) finally to validate this scoring system in a second independent cohort of patients. Materials and methods: A total of 76 consecutive patients (training cohort from Rennes) treated with chemoradiotherapy or RT with cetuximab for LAOC were used to build a predictive model of locoregional control (LRC) and OS based on PET-FDG parameters. After internal calibration and validation of this model, a nomogram and a scoring system were developed and tested in a validation cohort of 46 consecutive patients treated with definitive RT for LAOC in Lausanne. Results: In multivariate analysis, the metabolic tumour volume (MTV) of the primary tumour and the lymph nodes were independent predictive factors for LRC and OS. Internal calibration showed a very good adjustment between the predicted OS and the observed OS at 24 months. Using the predictive score, two risk groups were identified (median OS 42 versus 14 months, p < 0.001) and confirmed in the validation cohort from Lausanne (median OS not reached versus 26 months, p = 0.008).