Bayesian inferenceBayesian inference (ˈbeɪziən or ˈbeɪʒən ) is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law.
Posterior predictive distributionIn Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. Given a set of N i.i.d. observations , a new value will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space. It may seem tempting to plug in a single best estimate for , but this ignores uncertainty about , and because a source of uncertainty is ignored, the predictive distribution will be too narrow.
Categorical distributionIn probability theory and statistics, a categorical distribution (also called a generalized Bernoulli distribution, multinoulli distribution) is a discrete probability distribution that describes the possible results of a random variable that can take on one of K possible categories, with the probability of each category separately specified. There is no innate underlying ordering of these outcomes, but numerical labels are often attached for convenience in describing the distribution, (e.g. 1 to K).
Beta distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the beta distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions defined on the interval [0, 1] or (0, 1) in terms of two positive parameters, denoted by alpha (α) and beta (β), that appear as exponents of the variable and its complement to 1, respectively, and control the shape of the distribution. The beta distribution has been applied to model the behavior of random variables limited to intervals of finite length in a wide variety of disciplines.
Orthogonal matrixIn linear algebra, an orthogonal matrix, or orthonormal matrix, is a real square matrix whose columns and rows are orthonormal vectors. One way to express this is where QT is the transpose of Q and I is the identity matrix. This leads to the equivalent characterization: a matrix Q is orthogonal if its transpose is equal to its inverse: where Q−1 is the inverse of Q. An orthogonal matrix Q is necessarily invertible (with inverse Q−1 = QT), unitary (Q−1 = Q∗), where Q∗ is the Hermitian adjoint (conjugate transpose) of Q, and therefore normal (Q∗Q = QQ∗) over the real numbers.
Rotation matrixIn linear algebra, a rotation matrix is a transformation matrix that is used to perform a rotation in Euclidean space. For example, using the convention below, the matrix rotates points in the xy plane counterclockwise through an angle θ about the origin of a two-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system. To perform the rotation on a plane point with standard coordinates v = (x, y), it should be written as a column vector, and multiplied by the matrix R: If x and y are the endpoint coordinates of a vector, where x is cosine and y is sine, then the above equations become the trigonometric summation angle formulae.
Normal-gamma distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the normal-gamma distribution (or Gaussian-gamma distribution) is a bivariate four-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. It is the conjugate prior of a normal distribution with unknown mean and precision. For a pair of random variables, (X,T), suppose that the conditional distribution of X given T is given by meaning that the conditional distribution is a normal distribution with mean and precision — equivalently, with variance Suppose also that the marginal distribution of T is given by where this means that T has a gamma distribution.
Posterior probabilityThe posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time.
Normal matrixIn mathematics, a complex square matrix A is normal if it commutes with its conjugate transpose A^: The concept of normal matrices can be extended to normal operators on infinite dimensional normed spaces and to normal elements in C-algebras. As in the matrix case, normality means commutativity is preserved, to the extent possible, in the noncommutative setting. This makes normal operators, and normal elements of C*-algebras, more amenable to analysis.
Bayesian statisticsBayesian statistics (ˈbeɪziən or ˈbeɪʒən ) is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials.
Statistical inferenceStatistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population. Inferential statistics can be contrasted with descriptive statistics. Descriptive statistics is solely concerned with properties of the observed data, and it does not rest on the assumption that the data come from a larger population.
Unitary matrixIn linear algebra, an invertible complex square matrix U is unitary if its conjugate transpose U* is also its inverse, that is, if where I is the identity matrix. In physics, especially in quantum mechanics, the conjugate transpose is referred to as the Hermitian adjoint of a matrix and is denoted by a dagger (†), so the equation above is written For real numbers, the analogue of a unitary matrix is an orthogonal matrix. Unitary matrices have significant importance in quantum mechanics because they preserve norms, and thus, probability amplitudes.
Hermitian matrixIn mathematics, a Hermitian matrix (or self-adjoint matrix) is a complex square matrix that is equal to its own conjugate transpose—that is, the element in the i-th row and j-th column is equal to the complex conjugate of the element in the j-th row and i-th column, for all indices i and j: or in matrix form: Hermitian matrices can be understood as the complex extension of real symmetric matrices.
Infinitesimal rotation matrixAn infinitesimal rotation matrix or differential rotation matrix is a matrix representing an infinitely small rotation. While a rotation matrix is an orthogonal matrix representing an element of (the special orthogonal group), the differential of a rotation is a skew-symmetric matrix in the tangent space (the special orthogonal Lie algebra), which is not itself a rotation matrix.
Rotation (mathematics)Rotation in mathematics is a concept originating in geometry. Any rotation is a motion of a certain space that preserves at least one point. It can describe, for example, the motion of a rigid body around a fixed point. Rotation can have a sign (as in the sign of an angle): a clockwise rotation is a negative magnitude so a counterclockwise turn has a positive magnitude. A rotation is different from other types of motions: translations, which have no fixed points, and (hyperplane) reflections, each of them having an entire (n − 1)-dimensional flat of fixed points in a n-dimensional space.
Variational Bayesian methodsVariational Bayesian methods are a family of techniques for approximating intractable integrals arising in Bayesian inference and machine learning. They are typically used in complex statistical models consisting of observed variables (usually termed "data") as well as unknown parameters and latent variables, with various sorts of relationships among the three types of random variables, as might be described by a graphical model. As typical in Bayesian inference, the parameters and latent variables are grouped together as "unobserved variables".
Symmetric matrixIn linear algebra, a symmetric matrix is a square matrix that is equal to its transpose. Formally, Because equal matrices have equal dimensions, only square matrices can be symmetric. The entries of a symmetric matrix are symmetric with respect to the main diagonal. So if denotes the entry in the th row and th column then for all indices and Every square diagonal matrix is symmetric, since all off-diagonal elements are zero. Similarly in characteristic different from 2, each diagonal element of a skew-symmetric matrix must be zero, since each is its own negative.
Invertible matrixIn linear algebra, an n-by-n square matrix A is called invertible (also nonsingular, nondegenerate or (rarely used) regular), if there exists an n-by-n square matrix B such that where In denotes the n-by-n identity matrix and the multiplication used is ordinary matrix multiplication. If this is the case, then the matrix B is uniquely determined by A, and is called the (multiplicative) inverse of A, denoted by A−1. Matrix inversion is the process of finding the matrix B that satisfies the prior equation for a given invertible matrix A.
Diagonalizable matrixIn linear algebra, a square matrix is called diagonalizable or non-defective if it is similar to a diagonal matrix, i.e., if there exists an invertible matrix and a diagonal matrix such that , or equivalently . (Such , are not unique.) For a finite-dimensional vector space , a linear map is called diagonalizable if there exists an ordered basis of consisting of eigenvectors of .
Exponential familyIn probability and statistics, an exponential family is a parametric set of probability distributions of a certain form, specified below. This special form is chosen for mathematical convenience, including the enabling of the user to calculate expectations, covariances using differentiation based on some useful algebraic properties, as well as for generality, as exponential families are in a sense very natural sets of distributions to consider. The term exponential class is sometimes used in place of "exponential family", or the older term Koopman–Darmois family.
