Publication

Dynamic Valuation of Delinquent Credit Card Accounts

Thomas Alois Weber
2015
Journal Articles

Abstract

This paper introduces a dynamic model of the stochastic repayment behavior exhibited by delinquent creditcard accounts. Based on this model, we construct a dynamic collectability score (DCS) that estimates the account-specific probability of collecting a given portion of the outstanding debt over any given time horizon. The model integrates a variety of information sources, including historical repayment data, account-specific, and time-varying macroeconomic covariates, as well as scheduled account-treatment actions. Two model-identification methods are examined, based on maximum-likelihood estimation and the generalized method of moments. The latter allows for an operational-statistics approach, combining model estimation and performance optimization by tailoring the estimation error to business-relevant loss functions. The DCS framework is applied to a large set of account-level repayment data. The improvements in classification and prediction performance compared to standard bank-internal scoring methods are found to be significant.

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/f705991a-4877-46d4-835d-2b0a1d02f2f9

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Thomas Alois Weber
2015
Journal Articles

Abstract

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/entities/publication/f705991a-4877-46d4-835d-2b0a1d02f2f9

About this result

Related concepts (32)

Maximum likelihood estimation

In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference.

Estimation theory

Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such a way that their value affects the distribution of the measured data. An estimator attempts to approximate the unknown parameters using the measurements.

Credit card

A credit card is a payment card issued to users (cardholders) to enable the cardholder to pay a merchant for goods and services based on the cardholder's accrued debt (i.e., promise to the card issuer to pay them for the amounts plus the other agreed charges). The card issuer (usually a bank or credit union) creates a revolving account and grants a line of credit to the cardholder, from which the cardholder can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance.

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