Concept

Equity premium puzzle

Publications associées (20)

Essays in macro-finance and deep learning

This thesis studies the origins and consequences of financial crises, and computational techniques to solve continuous-time economic models that explain such crises. The first chapter shows that financial recessions are typically characterised by a large ...

EPFL2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

Alexis Arilès Marchal

This thesis consists of three applications of machine learning techniques to empirical asset pricing. In the first part, which is co-authored work with Oksana Bashchenko, we develop a new method that detects jumps nonparametrically in financial time series ...

EPFL2022

Predictive user-based relocation through incentives in one-way car-sharing systems

Nikolaos Geroliminis, Patrick Stefan Adriaan Stokkink

Car-sharing systems are an attractive alternative to private vehicles due to their benefits in terms of mobility and sustainability. However, the distribution of vehicles throughout the network in one-way systems is disturbed due to asymmetry and stochasti ...

2021

Motivating Innovation: The Effect of Loss Aversion on the Willingness to Persist

Kenneth Younge

We investigate the willingness of individuals to persist at exploration in the face of failure. Prior research suggests that the organization's "tolerance for failure" may motivate greater exploration by the individual. Little is known, however, about how ...

MIT Press2020

Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty

Martin Alois Rohrmeier

When faced with a decision, most people like to know the odds and prefer to avoid ambiguity. It has been suggested that this aversion to ambiguity is linked to people's assumption of worst possible outcomes. We used two closely linked behavioural tasks in ...

Nature Research2019

"Dice"-sion Making under Uncertainty: When Can a Random Decision Reduce Risk?

Daniel Kuhn, Wolfram Wiesemann

Stochastic programming and distributionally robust optimization seek deterministic decisions that optimize a risk measure, possibly in view of the most adverse distribution in an ambiguity set. We investigate under which circumstances such deterministic de ...

2019

Three Problems of Liquidity under Asymmetric Information

Sylvain Jean Pascal Carré

This thesis develops models for three problems of liquidity under asymmetric information. In the chapter "Disclosures, Rollover Risk, and Debt Runs" I build a model of dynamic debt runs without perfect information in order to understand the impact of asset ...

EPFL2019

Non-myopic betas

Semyon Malamud

An overlapping generations model with investors having heterogeneous investment horizons leads to a two-factor asset pricing model. The risk premiums are determined by the exposure to the market (myopic betas) and the future return on the efficient portfol ...

2018

Equilibrium Models for Derivatives Markets with Frictions

Yuan Zhang

This thesis develops equilibrium models, and studies the effects of market frictions on risk-sharing, derivatives pricing, and trading patterns. In the chapter titled "Imbalance-Based Option Pricing", I develop an equilibrium model of fragmented options m ...

EPFL2018

Acute stress alters individual risk taking in a time-dependent manner and leads to anti-social risk

Maria del Carmen Sandi Perez, Samuel Bendahan, Leyla Loued-Khenissi, Fiona Hollis, John Christian Thoresen, Lorenz Goette

Decision-making processes can be modulated by stress, and the time elapsed from stress induction seems to be a crucial factor in determining the direction of the effects. Although current approaches consider the ﬁrst post-stress hour a uniform period, the ...

2017

Satisficing measure approach for vehicle routing problem with time windows under uncertainty

Jingjing Jiang

The complexity of evaluating chance constraints makes chance-constrained programming problem difficult to solve. One way to handle this complexity is by devising satisficing measures for the relevant uncertainties. This paper focuses on solving the stochas ...

2016

Robust Growth-Optimal Portfolios

Daniel Kuhn, Napat Rujeerapaiboon, Wolfram Wiesemann

The growth-optimal portfolio is designed to have maximum expected log-return over the next rebalancing period. Thus, it can be computed with relative ease by solving a static optimization problem. The growth-optimal portfolio has sparked fascination among ...

Informs2016

Risk and Reward Preferences under Time Pressure

Anjali Devi Vanapilli Nursimulu

Financial decision making under time pressure, though ubiquitous, is poorly understood; classical and behavioral finance are silent about the time required for a decision to be made. In an experiment, calibrating allowable decision times to 1, 3, and 5 s, ...

Oxford Univ Press2014

Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

Anjali Devi Vanapilli Nursimulu

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of inf ...

Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd2014

Using identity premium for cooperation enforcement and whitewashing prevention in rational environments

Karl Aberer, Hung Le Vu

One fundamental issue in existing reputation mechanisms, particularly those in open and decentralized multi-agent systems, is whitewashing attacks by rational providers. If identities are cheap, it is beneficial for a provider to simply defect when selling ...

2010

Essays on Equilibrium Asset Pricing

Rodolfo Javier Prieto Katunaric

This thesis consists of three chapters. The first chapter endogenizes technological change by introducing a stylized innovation process driven by a R&D–dependent Poisson process in a Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) production economy. The model reproduces s ...

EPFL2010

Variance Risk Premia in Energy Commodities

Anders Trolle

This paper investigates variance risk premia in energy commodities, particularly crude oil and natural gas, using a robust model-independent approach. Over a period of 11 years, we find that the average variance risk premia are significantly negative for b ...

2010

Neural Correlates of Value, Risk, and Risk Aversion Contributing to Decision Making under Risk

Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of the ...

2009

Risk Aversion in Laboratory Asset Markets

We review the use of behavior from television game shows to infer risk attitudes. These shows provide evidence when contestants are making decisions over very large stakes, and in a replicated, structured way. Inferences are generally confounded by the sub ...

JAI Press, Research in Experimental Economics2008