Publications associées à Foundations of statistics

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Social Learning Under Inferential Attacks

Ali H. Sayed, Virginia Bordignon, Stefan Vlaski, Konstantinos Ntemos

A common assumption in the social learning literature is that agents exchange information in an unselfish manner. In this work, we consider the scenario where a subset of agents aims at driving the network beliefs to the wrong hypothesis. The adversaries a ...

IEEE2021

F-BLEAU: Fast Black-box Leakage Estimation

Giovanni Cherubin

We consider the problem of measuring how much a system reveals about its secret inputs. We work in the black-box setting: we assume no prior knowledge of the system's internals, and we run the system for choices of secrets and measure its leakage from the ...

IEEE2019

Optimistic Distributionally Robust Optimization for Nonparametric Likelihood Approximation

Daniel Kuhn, Viet Anh Nguyen, Soroosh Shafieezadeh Abadeh, Wolfram Wiesemann

The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood ...

2019

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for population genetic inference

Gregory Bruce Ewing

In many population genetic problems, parameter estimation is obstructed by an intractable likelihood function. Therefore, approximate estimation methods have been developed, and with growing computational power, sampling-based methods became popular. Howev ...

De Gruyter2017

A Bayesian view of doubly robust causal inference

Léo Raymond-Belzile

In causal inference the effect of confounding may be controlled using regression adjustment in an outcome model, propensity score adjustment, inverse probability of treatment weighting or a combination of these. Approaches based on modelling the treatment ...

Oxford University Press2016

Bayesian Inference For The Brown-Resnick Process, With An Application To Extreme Low Temperatures

Anthony Christopher Davison, Emeric Rolland Georges Thibaud

The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite likelihood, thereby preve ...

Inst Mathematical Statistics2016

Dynamic Valuation of Delinquent Credit Card Accounts

Thomas Alois Weber

This paper introduces a dynamic model of the stochastic repayment behavior exhibited by delinquent creditcard accounts. Based on this model, we construct a dynamic collectability score (DCS) that estimates the account-specific probability of collecting a g ...

INFORMS2015

Statistics of Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Huser

Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of int ...

Annual Reviews2015

Statistical Unfolding Of Elementary Particle Spectra: Empirical Bayes Estimation And Bias-Corrected Uncertainty Quantification

Victor Panaretos, Mikael Johan Kuusela

We consider the high energy physics unfolding problem where the goal is to estimate the spectrum of elementary particles given observations distorted by the limited resolution of a particle detector. This important statistical inverse problem arising in da ...

Inst Mathematical Statistics2015

Spectral Density Ratio Models for Multivariate Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison

The modeling of multivariate extremes has received increasing recent attention because of its importance in risk assessment. In classical statistics of extremes, the joint distribution of two or more extremes has a nonparametric form, subject to moment con ...

American Statistical Association2014

Bayesian inference from composite likelihoods, with an application to spatial extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison

Composite likelihoods are increasingly used in applications where the full likelihood is analytically unknown or computationally prohibitive. Although some frequentist properties of the maximum composite likelihood estimator are akin to those of the maximu ...

Academia Sinica, Institute of Statistical Science2012

Hierarchical wavelet modelling of environmental sensor data

Anthony Christopher Davison, Yann Ruffieux

Motivated by the need to smooth and to summarize multiple simultaneous time series arising from networks of environmental monitors, we propose a hierarchical wavelet model for which estimation of hyperparameters can be performed by marginal maximum likelih ...

2011

Stratégies de compromis pour l'estimation des paramètres de régression et pour la classification floue

Nicolas Fournier

Model specification is an integral part of any statistical inference problem. Several model selection techniques have been developed in order to determine which model is the best one among a list of possible candidates. Another way to deal with this questi ...

EPFL2011

Forensic automatic speaker recognition using Bayesian interpretation and statistical compensation for mismatched conditions

Anil Alexander

Nowadays, state-of-the-art automatic speaker recognition systems show very good performance in discriminating between voices of speakers under controlled recording conditions. However, the conditions in which recordings are made in investigative activities ...

EPFL2005

Statistical cryptanalysis of block ciphers

Pascal Junod

Since the development of cryptology in the industrial and academic worlds in the seventies, public knowledge and expertise have grown in a tremendous way, notably because of the increasing, nowadays almost ubiquitous, presence of electronic communication m ...

EPFL2005

Optimal Conditionally Unbiased Bounded-Influence Inference in Dynamic Location and Scale Models

Loriano Mancini, Fabio Trojani

This paper studies the local robustness of estimators and tests for the conditional location and scale parameters in a strictly stationary time series model. We first derive optimal bounded-influence estimators for such settings under a conditionally Gauss ...

2005