Publications associées à Forecast error

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Benjamin Bejar Haro, Ekaterina Krymova, Ntorina Thanou, Nicola Parolini, Daniel Rodrigo Lopez, Andrea Kraus, Daniel Lopez, David Kraus, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Modeling local thermal responses of individuals: Validation of advanced human thermo-physiology models

Dolaana Khovalyg, Mohamad Rida

Human thermo-physiology models (HTPM) are useful tools to assess dynamic and non-uniform human thermal states. However, they are developed based on the physiological data of an average person. In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of two sophisti ...

2023

Characterizing the Reserve Provision Capability Area of Active Distribution Networks: A Linear Robust Optimization Method

Fabrizio Sossan, Mokhtar Bozorg, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Mohsen Kalantar Neyestanaki

Distributed energy resources (DERs) installed in active distribution networks (ADNs) can be exploited to provide both active and reactive power reserves to the upper-layer grid (i.e., sub-transmission and transmission systems) at their connection point. Th ...

2021

Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Fernando Porté Agel, Jiannong Fang, Lorenzo Donadio

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real ...

2021

Optimal Stochastic Sensor Error Modeling based on Actual Impact on Quality of GNSS-INS Integrated Navigation

Jan Skaloud, Stéphane Guerrier, Mehran Khaghani

Proper modeling of stochastic errors in inertial sensors plays a crucial role in the achievable quality of GNSS-INS integration especially with low-cost inertial sensors. Generalized Method of Wavelet Moments (GMWM) can model the underlying process for suc ...

2019

Allocation of Active Power Reserve from Active Distribution Networks Using a Cost-Benefit Approach: Application to Swissgrid Network

Fabrizio Sossan, Mokhtar Bozorg, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Mohsen Kalantar Neyestanaki

The flexibility of distributed energy resources (DERs) accommodated in active distribution networks (ADNs) can be aggregated and then used to provide ancillary services to the transmission system. In this context, this paper presents a linear optimization ...

IEEE2019

Balancing wind-power fluctuation via onsite storage under uncertainty: Power-to-hydrogen-to-power versus lithium battery

François Maréchal, Jan Van Herle, Ligang Wang, Yumeng Zhang

Imbalance costs caused by forecasting errors are considerable for grid-connected wind farms. In order to reduce such costs, two onsite storage technologies, i.e., power-to-hydrogen-to-power and lithium battery, are investigated considering 14 uncertain tec ...

2019

Allocation of Frequency Control Reserve from Aggregated Resources of Active Distribution Systems

Fabrizio Sossan, Mokhtar Bozorg, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Mohsen Kalantar Neyestanaki

This paper addresses the allocation of frequency control services (FCSs) from aggregated resources of active distribution systems (ARADSs) for balancing the transmission system while considering credible contingencies as well as forecast error of loads and ...

IEEE2018

A System and Method for Dispatching an Operation with Heterogeneous Prosumers

Mario Paolone, Fabrizio Sossan, Emil Namor

A method for dispatching an operation of a distribution feeder of electrical power into a grid with heterogeneous prosumers, the method comprising the steps of establishing a dispatch plan on a computer by using forecast data of an aggregated consumption a ...

2017

Model-free computation of ultra-short-term prediction intervals of solar irradiance

Jean-Yves Le Boudec, Mario Paolone, Dimitri Torregrossa

We propose an ultra-short-term dynamic interval predictor (DIP) of solar irradiance. Our DIP relies on experimentally observed correlations between the derivative of the solar irradiance and the forecast error in the next time-step. The main originalities ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2016

Control of a Battery Energy Storage System Accounting for the Charge Redistribution Effect to Dispatch the Operation of a Medium Voltage Feeder

Mario Paolone, Fabrizio Sossan, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Emil Namor, Dimitri Torregrossa

We describe a process to dispatch the operation of a medium voltage distribution feeder and improve its quality-of-service using a battery energy storage system (BESS). It is organized according to a day-ahead and intra-day structure to allow the integrati ...

IEEE2015

Heat demand estimation for different building types at regional scale considering building parameters and urban topography

François Maréchal, Jessen Page, Alexandre Suzanne Jean-Marie Bertrand, Nils Christian Schüler

This study aims towards an improved estimation of annual heat demand of the building stock for an entire region. This requires the holistic representation of aspects influencing the heat demand of buildings, namely their geometry, fabric, users and surroun ...

Elsevier2015

Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

Anjali Devi Vanapilli Nursimulu

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of inf ...

Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd2014

Statistical analysis of optimal energy and security controls under different sources of uncertainties

Mokhtar Bozorg, Sidi-Rachid Cherkaoui, Omid Alizadeh Mousavi

The management of uncertainties is a challenging task for reliable and secure operation of power systems. The uncertainties come from multiple sources, including the forecast errors of wind power and load, the forced outage of generating units, loss of tra ...

IEEE2014

On the use of inexact, pruned hardware in atmospheric modelling

Giovanni De Micheli, Jaime Joven Murillo, Avinash Lingamneni

Inexact hardware design, which advocates trading the accuracy of computations in exchange for significant savings in area, power and/or performance of computing hardware, has received increasing prominence in several error-tolerant application domains, par ...

Royal Soc2014

An information-theoretical perspective on weighted ensemble forecasts

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

This paper presents an information--theoretical method for weighting ensemble forecasts with new information. Weighted ensemble forecasts can be used to adjust the distribution that an existing ensemble of time series represents, without modifying the valu ...

Elsevier2013