Publications associées à Modèles compartimentaux en épidémiologie

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Community-Aware Group Testing

Pavlos Nikolopoulos, Christina Fragouli, Suhas Diggavi, Sundara Rajan Srinivasavaradhan

Group testing is a technique that can reduce the number of tests needed to identify infected members in a population, by pooling together multiple diagnostic samples. Despite the variety and importance of prior results, traditional work on group testing ha ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2023

Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario

Alfio Quarteroni, Luca Dede', Nicola Parolini

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a funda-mental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of pre-ventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control theory represent ...

KEAI PUBLISHING LTD2023

Optimizing the mitigation of epidemic spreading through targeted adoption of contact tracing apps

Andrea Santoro

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive for a virus can help slow down an epidemi ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2022

The Role of Adaptivity in Source Identification with Time Queries

Gergely Odor

Understanding epidemic propagation in large networks is an important but challenging task, especially since we usually lack information, and the information that we have is often counter-intuitive. An illustrative example is the dependence of the final siz ...

EPFL2022

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

A mathematical dashboard for the analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic data

Alfio Quarteroni, Luca Dede', Nicola Parolini

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at ) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our analysis provides an immediate appreciation of t ...

Wiley2021

Modeling infectious disease dynamics towards informed public health interventions, with applications on COVID-19 and cholera

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Emerging and existing infectious diseases pose a constant threat to individuals and communities across the world. In many cases, the burden of these diseases is preventable through public health interventions. However, taking the right decisions and design ...

EPFL2021

Wastewater monitoring outperforms case numbers as a tool to track COVID-19 incidence dynamics when test positivity rates are high

Tamar Kohn, Xavier Fernandez Cassi, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Federica Cariti, Alex Tunas Corzon, Timothy R. Julian, Carola Bänziger

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to coincide with, or anticipate, confirmed COVID-19 case numbers. During periods with high test positivity rates, however, case numbers may be underreported, whereas wastewater does not suffer from this li ...

2021

Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks

Gergely Odor

It is a fundamental question in disease modeling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. One important goal has been to find the seed configuration, which infects the most individuals. Although the id ...

2021

The influence of trip length distribution on urban traffic in network-level models

Mikhail Murashkin

Modeling urban traffic on the level of network is a wide research area oriented to the development of ITS. In this thesis properties of models based on MFD (Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram) are studied. The idea behind MFD is to say that the state of the t ...

EPFL2021

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová, Maria Refinetti, Indaco Biazzo, Giovanni Catania

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been ...

National Academy of Sciences2021

A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning

Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, ...

Nature Portfolio2021

Development and applications of hyperpolarized 13C and 1H MR spectroscopy of cerebral metabolism at ultra-high field

Emmanuelle Ines Flatt

This thesis is composed of four studies centered on investigating cerebral metabolism using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) of hyperpolarized and non-hyperpolarized compounds at ultra-high field. In the first two chapters, we studied longitudinally t ...

EPFL2021

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Marcel Salathé

Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing con ...

Nature Research2021

Flocking-enhanced social contagion

Ignacio Pagonabarraga Mora

Populations of mobile agents-animal groups, robot swarms, or crowds of people-self-organize into a large diversity of states as a result of information exchanges with their surroundings. While in many situations of interest the motion of the agents is driv ...

AMER PHYSICAL SOC2020

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland

Andrea Rinaldo, Jacques Fellay, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre

Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by the cantons and the federal government between 28 February and 20 March 2020. Estimates of the impact of these inter ...

2020

Interplay between cost and benefits triggers nontrivial vaccination uptake

Paolo De Los Rios, Alessio Vincenzo Cardillo

The containment of epidemic spreading is a major challenge in science. Vaccination, whenever available, is the best way to prevent the spreading, because it eventually immunizes individuals. However, vaccines are not perfect, and total immunization is not ...

2018

Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaks

Emanuele Massaro

Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service disruption, as well as ...

Nature Research2018