Publications de Marino Gatto | EPFL Graph Search

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Cristiano Trevisin

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Cristiano Trevisin

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Mario Zanon

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or ri ...

2022

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto, Cristiano Trevisin

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Luca Carraro

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explici ...

National Academy of Sciences2020

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Damiano Pasetto

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly atten ...

Nature Research2020

River networks as ecological corridors. Species, populations, pathogens

Andrea Rinaldo, Marino Gatto

Cambridge University Press2020

Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epid ...

2019

Modelled effects of prawn aquaculture on poverty alleviation and schistosomiasis control

Andrea Rinaldo, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Recent evidence suggests that snail predators may aid efforts to control the human parasitic disease schistosomiasis by eating aquatic snail species that serve as intermediate hosts of the parasite. Here, potential synergies between schistosomiasis control ...

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP2019

Spread of proliferative kidney disease in fish along stream networks: A spatial metacommunity framework

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Luca Carraro

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a high-mortality pathology that critically affects freshwater salmonid populations. Infection is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans as primary hosts. ...

2018

Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

2018

River networks as ecological corridors: A coherent ecohydrological perspective

Andrea Rinaldo, Marino Gatto

2018

A generalized definition of reactivity for ecological systems and the problem of transient species dynamics

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Perturbations to an ecosystem's steady state can trigger transient responses of great ecological relevance. Asymptotic stability determines whether a generic perturbation will fade out in the long run, but falls short of characterizing the dynamics imme ...

Wiley2017

Integrated field, laboratory, and theoretical study of PKD spread in a Swiss prealpine river

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Luca Carraro

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a major threat to wild and farmed salmonid populations because of its lethal effect at high water temperatures. Its causative agent, the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, has a complex lifecycle exploiting freshw ...

National Academy of Sciences2017

Heterogeneity in schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Simple models of disease propagation often disregard the effects of transmission heterogeneity on the ecological and epidemiological dynamics associated with host-parasite interactions. However, for some diseases like schistosomiasis, a widespread parasiti ...

Academic Press Ltd- Elsevier Science Ltd2017

Modeling Key Drivers of Cholera Transmission Dynamics Provides New Perspectives for Parasitology

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Melanie Blokesch, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Hydroclimatological and anthropogenic factors are key drivers of waterborne disease transmission. Information on human settlements and host mobility on waterways along which pathogens and hosts disperse, and relevant hydroclimatological processes, can be a ...

2017

Incorporating the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis into spatially explicit models of disease transmission in seasonal climates

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Natalie Claire Ceperley, Theophile Mande, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Wiley2017

An epidemiological model for proliferative kidney disease in salmonid populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Luca Carraro

Background: Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans and salmonids as hosts. Inciden ...

Biomed Central Ltd2016

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Natalie Claire Ceperley, Theophile Mande, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance ...

Natl Acad Sciences2016

On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

Flavio Finger, Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

More than three years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already caused more than 8,500 deaths and 695,000 infections and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, ...

Springer Verlag2016