Early warning thresholds for partially saturated slopes in volcanic ashes

Rainfall-induced landslides in steep soil slopes of volcanic origin are a major threat to human lives and infrastructure. In the context of constructing early warning systems in regions where extensive data on landslide occurrences and associated rainfall are inexistent, physically based tools offer the possibility to establish thresholds for measurable field quantities. In this paper, a combined finite element infinite slope model is presented to study the transient hydraulic response of volcanic ash slopes to a series of rainfall events and to estimate seasonal safety factors. Furthermore, analytical considerations of partially saturated infinite slopes are made to define capillary stress thresholds for a landslide early warning system.