Publications associées à Understanding, modelling and managing longevity risk: key issues and main challenges

Using automated design appraisal to model building-specific devaluation risk due to land-use change

Uncertainty of spillover effects – including property devaluation - from proposed land-use change elicits opposition to local development. This hinders cities’ ability to implement land-use policy aimed at housing affordability and environmental sustainabi ...

2024

Quartiers rhodaniens en transition

Sara Sonia Formery Regazzoni

Over the course of history, the relationship between cities and their waters has shown different gradients of interweaving, marked by cycles of bonding and distancing. Following a period of complete neglect of urban watercourses, the versatile, multifacete ...

EPFL2024

The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market

Andreas Fuster

We introduce a new measure of the price charged by ﬁnancial intermediaries for con-necting mortgage borrowers with capital market investors. Based on administrativelender pricing data, we document that the price of intermediation reacts stronglyto variatio ...

2024

Correlation of powers of Hüsler-Reiss vectors and Brown-Resnick fields, and application to insured wind losses

Erwan Fabrice Koch

H & uuml;sler-Reiss vectors and Brown-Resnick fields are popular models in multivariate and spatial extreme-value theory, respectively, and are widely used in applications. We provide analytical formulas for the correlation between powers of the components ...

Springer2024

Spatial Modeling for Building Design Evaluation: from Visual Landscape Quality Assessment to Devaluation Risk Estimation

Adam Robert Swietek

Zoning reform is a crucial tool for cities to adapt to contemporary challenges. However, its implementation remains challenging. Property owners, with a vested interest in the value of their neighborhoods, are sensitive to local developments and the potent ...

EPFL2024

Monopoly Pricing with Unknown Demand

Thomas Alois Weber

The optimal pricing of goods, especially when they are new and the innovating firm is a monopolist, must proceed without precise knowledge of the demand curve. This paper provides a pricing method with a relative robustness guarantee by maximizing a perfor ...

2025

Assessment framework for deepfake detection in real-world situations

Touradj Ebrahimi, Yuhang Lu

Detecting digital face manipulation in images and video has attracted extensive attention due to the potential risk to public trust. To counteract the malicious usage of such techniques, deep learning-based deepfake detection methods have been employed and ...

2024

A lunar reconnaissance drone for cooperative exploration and high-resolution mapping of extreme locations

Erik Uythoven, Thomas Pfeiffer, Daniel Tataru, David Rodriguez Martinez

An efficient characterization of scientifically significant locations is essential prior to the return of humans to the Moon. The highest resolution imagery acquired from orbit of south-polar shadowed regions and other relevant locations remains, at best, ...

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2024

On the Generalization of Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum

Volkan Cevher, Kimon Antonakopoulos

While momentum-based accelerated variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are widely used when training machine learning models, there is little theoretical understanding on the generalization error of such methods. In this work, we first show that th ...

Microtome Publishing2024

Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrat ...

2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Bayes Security: A Not So Average Metric

Carmela González Troncoso, Giovanni Cherubin

Security system designers favor worst-case security metrics, such as those derived from differential privacy (DP), due to the strong guarantees they provide. On the downside, these guarantees result in a high penalty on the system's performance. In this pa ...

IEEE2023

Numerical simulation of the fate, transport and public health risks of enteric viruses in Lake Geneva

Chaojie Li

Lakes are a fundamental feature of nature with brilliance, profoundness and complexity. Various of physical, chemical and biological changes take place three dimensionally in deep lakes, regulated by complicated boundary conditions. To understand and predi ...

EPFL2023

Safety risk management in University laboratories

Anastasia Jung

Risk management has become an essential element in the functioning of modern society. Correct risk identification and assessment are undoubtedly crucial to improving overall safety; nevertheless, often, it is accompanied by the wrong selection of correctiv ...

EPFL2023

Combining European and US risk prediction models with polygenic risk scores to refine cardiovascular prevention: the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus Study

Stéphane Fournier, Roxane De La Harpe, Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball

Lay Summary The aim of this study is to determine whether using polygenic risk scores improves the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk when combined with clinical scores currently recommended by European and US guidelines on cardiovas ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2023

Surrogate modelling for seismic collapse risk assessment of steel moment resisting frames

Dimitrios Lignos, Andronikos Skiadopoulos, Nenad Bijelic

With the overall goal of reducing the numerical burden of uncertainty quantification involved in seismic risk assessments, this paper examines opportunities for assessment of seismic collapse capacity and risk using data-driven surrogates as a complement t ...

2023

Relating health benefits of water, sanitation, and hygiene services with the context of urban informal settlements: lessons from Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya

Vitor Pessoa Colombo

This thesis is inscribed in the recent efforts to reconnect urban planning and public health. It focused on the context of sub-Saharan African cities, for they offer invaluable lessons regarding environmental health determinants and potential solutions to ...

EPFL2023

Predicting type 2 diabetes risk before and after solid organ transplantation using polygenic scores in a Danish cohort

Jacques Fellay, Christian Axel Wandall Thorball

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can be multifactorial where both genetics and environmental factors play a role. We aimed to investigate the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) in the prediction of pre-transplant T2DM and post-transplant diabetes mellitus ( ...

Frontiers Media Sa2023

Challenging the Assumptions: Rethinking Privacy, Bias, and Security in Machine Learning

Bogdan Kulynych

Predictive models based on machine learning (ML) offer a compelling promise: bringing clarity and structure to complex natural and social environments. However, the use of ML poses substantial risks related to the privacy of their training data as well as ...

EPFL2023

On Artificial Intelligence and Manipulation

Marcello Ienca

The increasing diffusion of novel digital and online sociotechnical systems for arational behavioral influence based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as social media, microtargeting advertising, and personalized search algorithms, has brought about ne ...

SPRINGER2023