Publications associées à Online Collaborative Prediction of Regional Vote Results

Robust Sparse Voting

Rachid Guerraoui, Le Nguyen Hoang, Youssef Allouah, Oscar Jean Olivier Villemaud

Many applications, such as content moderation and recommendation, require reviewing and scoring a large number of alternatives. Doing so robustly is however very challenging. Indeed, voters' inputs are inevitably sparse: most alternatives are only scored b ...

2024

Predicting party switching through machine learning and open data

Silvestro Micera, Emanuele Rossi

Parliament dynamics might seem erratic at times. Predicting future voting patterns could support policy design based on the simulation of voting scenarios. The availability of open data on legislative activities and machine learning tools might enable such ...

CELL PRESS2023

Robust Outlier Rejection for 3D Registration with Variational Bayes

Mathieu Salzmann, Zheng Dang, Zhen Wei, Jiancheng Yang, Haobo Jiang

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier f ...

Ieee Computer Soc2023

Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks

Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. Here, we develop a joint model for the occurrence intensity and t ...

2023

HIERARCHICAL MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR BAYESIAN INVERSE PROBLEMS

Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

This thesis is devoted to the construction, analysis, and implementation of two types of hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the solution of large-scale Bayesian Inverse Problems (BIP). The first hierarchical method we present is base ...

EPFL2022

Bayesian Inversion for Nonlinear Imaging Models Using Deep Generative Priors

Michaël Unser, Thanh-An Michel Pham, Pakshal Narendra Bohra, Jonathan Yuelin Dong

Most modern imaging systems incorporate a computational pipeline to infer the image of interest from acquired measurements. The Bayesian approach to solve such ill-posed inverse problems involves the characterization of the posterior distribution of the im ...

2022

Discrete-Choice Mining of Social Processes

Victor Kristof

Poor decisions and selfish behaviors give rise to seemingly intractable global problems, such as the lack of transparency in democratic processes, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. However, people are more predict ...

EPFL2021

Empirical Evidence on the Effectiveness of Shareholder Democracy

Maxime Thibault B Couvert

This thesis is composed of two essays that study the effectiveness of shareholder democracy. In the first essay, I analyze the firm value implications of shareholder-initiated proposals. I show that managerial resistance precludes half of shareholder-init ...

EPFL2021

Bayesian Methods for the Identification of Distribution Networks

Jean-Sébastien Hubert Brouillon, Giancarlo Ferrari Trecate, Pulkit Nahata

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level, necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of the admittance matrix, capturing the topology and line param ...

IEEE2021

Bayesian Decision Making in Groups is Hard

Jan Hazla

We study the computations that Bayesian agents undertake when exchanging opinions over a network. The agents act repeatedly on their private information and take myopic actions that maximize their expected utility according to a fully rational posterior be ...

INFORMS2021

Learning Self-Exciting Temporal Point Processes Under Noisy Observations

William Trouleau

Understanding the diffusion patterns of sequences of interdependent events is a central question for a variety of disciplines. Temporal point processes are a class of elegant and powerful models of such sequences; these processes have become popular across ...

EPFL2021

Validating model-based data interpretation methods for quantification of reserve capacity

Ian Smith, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham Pai

Optimal performance of civil infrastructure is an important aspect of liveable cities. A judicious combination of physics-based models with monitoring data in a validated methodology that accounts for uncertainties is explored in this paper. This methodolo ...

2021

A Variational Inference Approach to Learning Multivariate Wold Processes

Patrick Thiran, Matthias Grossglauser, Seyed Jalal Etesami, William Trouleau, Negar Kiyavash

Temporal point-processes are often used for mathematical modeling of sequences of discrete events with asynchronous timestamps. We focus on a class of temporal point-process models called multivariate Wold processes (MWP). These processes are well suited t ...

MICROTOME PUBLISHING2021

Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models

Prateek Bansal, Rico Krüger

Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Mont ...

2021

Technologizing Democracy or Democratizing Technology? A Layered-Architecture Perspective on Potentials and Challenges

Bryan Alexander Ford

While technology is often claimed to be “democratizing”, the technologizing of society has more often yielded undemocratic or even anti-democratic outcomes. Is technology fundamentally at odds with democracy, or is it merely a rich and infinitely-adaptable ...

University of Chicago Press2021

Probabilistic and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification of deterministic and stochastic differential equations

Giacomo Garegnani

In this thesis we explore uncertainty quantification of forward and inverse problems involving differential equations. Differential equations are widely employed for modeling natural and social phenomena, with applications in engineering, chemistry, meteor ...

EPFL2021

Adaptive Path Interpolation Method for Sparse Systems: Application to a Censored Block Model

Nicolas Macris, Chun Lam Chan, Jean François Emmanuel Barbier

Recently, a new adaptive path interpolation method has been developed as a simple and versatile scheme to calculate exactly the asymptotic mutual information of Bayesian inference problems defined on dense factor graphs. These include random linear and gen ...

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC2021

The probability of intransitivity in dice and close elections

Jan Hazla

We study the phenomenon of intransitivity in models of dice and voting. First, we follow a recent thread of research for n-sided dice with pairwise ordering induced by the probability, relative to 1/2, that a throw from one die is higher than the other. We ...

2020

Bayesian modeling of brain function and behavior

Maya Anna Jastrzebowska

The application of Bayesian modeling techniques is increasingly common in neuroscience due to the coherent and principled way in which the paradigm deals with uncertainty. The Bayesian framework is particularly valuable in the context of complex, ill-posed ...

EPFL2020

Rapid Recalibration of Peri-Personal Space: Psychophysical, Electrophysiological, and Neural Network Modeling Evidence

Bruno Herbelin, Olaf Blanke, Jean-Paul Noel, Andrea Serino, Elisa Pellencin, Tommaso Enrico Bertoni

Interactions between individuals and the environment occur within the peri-personal space (PPS). The encoding of this space plastically adapts to bodily constraints and stimuli features. However, these remapping effects have not been demonstrated on an ada ...

2020