Publications associées à Bayesian Inference For The Brown-Resnick Process, With An Application To Extreme Low Temperatures

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Siyu Chen, Alfredo Glioti

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

Deciphering the nature of cell state transitions in single cells using quantitative modeling of temporal dynamics

Alex Russell Lederer

Cells are the smallest operational units of living systems. Through synthesis of various biomolecules and exchange of signals with the environment, cells tightly regulate their composition to realize a specific functional state. The transformation of a cel ...

EPFL2024

Accretion Disk Size and Updated Time-delay Measurements in the Gravitationally Lensed Quasar SDSS J165043.44+425149.3

Frédéric Courbin, Martin Raoul Robert Millon

We analyze variability in 15-season optical lightcurves from the doubly imaged lensed quasar SDSS J165043.44+425149.3 (SDSS1650), comprising five seasons of monitoring data from the Maidanak Observatory (277 nights in total, including the two seasons of da ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Stochastic pairwise preference convergence in Bayesian agents

Max-Olivier Hongler

Beliefs inform the behaviour of forward-thinking agents in complex environments. Recently, sequential Bayesian inference has emerged as a mechanism to study belief formation among agents adapting to dynamical conditions. However, we lack critical theory to ...

2024

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Inferring free-energy barriers and kinetic rates from molecular dynamics via underdamped Langevin models

Fabio Pietrucci, Sara Bonella, David Daniel Girardier

Rare events include many of the most interesting transformation processes in condensed matter, from phase transitions to biomolecular conformational changes to chemical reactions. Access to the corresponding mechanisms, free-energy landscapes and kinetic r ...

Aip Publishing2023

Wind, Hail, and Climate Extremes: Modelling and Attribution Studies for Environmental Data

Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

This thesis presents work at the junction of statistics and climate science. We first provide methodology for use by climate scientists when performing fast event attribution using extreme value theory, and then describe two interdisciplinary projects in c ...

EPFL2023

Analysis of a Class of Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms Based on Independent Metropolis–Hastings

Fabio Nobile, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo(ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis--Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function involves solving ...

2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

Robust Outlier Rejection for 3D Registration with Variational Bayes

Mathieu Salzmann, Zheng Dang, Zhen Wei, Jiancheng Yang, Haobo Jiang

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier f ...

Ieee Computer Soc2023

Stochastic adaptive resampling for the estimation of discrete choice models

Michel Bierlaire, Nicola Marco Ortelli, Matthieu Marie Cochon de Lapparent

In the field of choice modeling, the availability of ever-larger datasets has the potential to significantly expand our understanding of human behavior, but this prospect is limited by the poor scalability of discrete choice models (DCMs): as sample sizes ...

2023

Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks

Jonathan Koh Boon Han

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. Here, we develop a joint model for the occurrence intensity and t ...

2023

Robust discrete choice models with t-distributed kernel errors

Michel Bierlaire, Prateek Bansal, Thomas Gasos

Outliers in discrete choice response data may result from misclassification and misreporting of the response variable and from choice behaviour that is inconsistent with modelling assumptions (e.g. random utility maximisation). In the presence of outliers, ...

2023

Time vs. Truth: Age-Distortion Tradeoffs and Strategies for Distributed Inference

Yunus Inan

In 1948, Claude Shannon laid the foundations of information theory, which grew out of a study to find the ultimate limits of source compression, and of reliable communication. Since then, information theory has proved itself not only as a quest to find the ...

EPFL2023

Quantitative Methods for Omnichannel Decision-Making

Andrey Vasilyev

Omnichannel retail has emerged as the new standard in today's commerce landscape, with retailers integrating their physical and online channels to enhance the customer shopping experience. However, such integration presents significant challenges for retai ...

EPFL2023

A note on universal inference

Anthony Christopher Davison, Timmy Rong Tian Tse

Universal inference enables the construction of confidence intervals and tests without regularity conditions by splitting the data into two parts and appealing to Markov's inequality. Previous investigations have shown that the cost of this generality is a ...

WILEY2022

Improved Inference On Risk Measures For Univariate Extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Léo Raymond-Belzile

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether higher-order approxima ...

INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS-IMS2022

A Bayesian data assimilation framework for lake 3D hydrodynamic models with a physics-preserving particle filtering method using SPUX-MITgcm v1

Damien Bouffard, Firat Ozdemir, Cintia Luz Ramon Casanas, Camille Roland Marie Minaudo

We present a Bayesian inference for a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva with stochastic weather forcing and high-frequency observational datasets. This is achieved by coupling a Bayesian inference package, SPUX, with a hydrodynamics packa ...

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH2022

HIERARCHICAL MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR BAYESIAN INVERSE PROBLEMS

Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

This thesis is devoted to the construction, analysis, and implementation of two types of hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the solution of large-scale Bayesian Inverse Problems (BIP). The first hierarchical method we present is base ...

EPFL2022

Space Oddity? A Statistical Formulation of Conjunction Assessment

Anthony Christopher Davison, Soumaya Elkantassi

Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some counterintuitive prope ...

AMER INST AERONAUTICS ASTRONAUTICS2022