Publications associées à A statistical methodology for quantification of uncertainty in best estimate code physical models

Seebeck Coefficient of Ionic Conductors from Bayesian Regression Analysis

We propose a novel approach to evaluating the ionic Seebeck coefficient in electrolytes from relatively short equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, based on the Green-Kubo theory of linear response and Bayesian regression analysis. By exploiting the ...

Amer Chemical Soc2024

ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference

Nikita Durasov, Nik Joel Dorndorf, Minh Hieu Lê

Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions on many kinds of data has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerge ...

2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Design of an Open-Loop Pile-Oscillation Program in the CROCUS Reactor

Andreas Pautz, Vincent Pierre Lamirand, Thomas Jean-François Ligonnet, Axel Guy Marie Laureau

As a follow-up to the CEA-EPFL PETALE experimental program on stainless steel nuclear data, the EPFL initiated an open-loop pile-oscillation experimental program in the CROCUS reactor: BLOOM. A reproduction of the critical experiments of PETALE, the progra ...

2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Alain Nussbaumer, Aurelio Muttoni, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Federated learning with uncertainty-based client clustering for fleet-wide fault diagnosis

Hao Lu, Chao Hu, Olga Fink

Operators from various industries have been pushing the adoption of wireless sensing nodes for industrial monitoring, and such efforts have produced sizeable condition monitoring datasets that can be used to build diagnosis algorithms capable of warning ma ...

2024

Health Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Under Unseen Working Conditions

Florent Evariste Forest, Yunhong Che

Battery health prediction is significant while challenging for intelligent battery management. This article proposes a general framework for both short-term and long-term predictions of battery health under unseen dynamic loading and temperature conditions ...

Ieee-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc2024

Spectral Estimators for High-Dimensional Matrix Inference

Farzad Pourkamali

A key challenge across many disciplines is to extract meaningful information from data which is often obscured by noise. These datasets are typically represented as large matrices. Given the current trend of ever-increasing data volumes, with datasets grow ...

EPFL2024

Extensions of Peer Prediction Incentive Mechanisms

Adam Julian Richardson

As large, data-driven artificial intelligence models become ubiquitous, guaranteeing high data quality is imperative for constructing models. Crowdsourcing, community sensing, and data filtering have long been the standard approaches to guaranteeing or imp ...

EPFL2024

On distributional autoregression and iterated transportation

Victor Panaretos, Laya Ghodrati

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of Double-struck capital R. An order-1 autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov chain, where ...

Wiley2024

Quantifying the Unknown: Data-Driven Approaches and Applications in Energy Systems

Paul Scharnhorst

In light of the challenges posed by climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement, electricity generation is shifting to a more renewable and decentralized pattern, while the operation of systems like buildings is increasingly electrified. This calls ...

EPFL2024

Reducing uncertainties in response predictions of earthquake-damaged masonry buildings using data from image-based inspection

Ian Smith, Katrin Beyer, Bryan German Pantoja Rosero, Mathias Christian Haindl Carvallo

Image information about the state of a building after an earthquake, which can be collected without endangering the post-earthquake reconnaissance activities, can be used to reduce uncertainties in response predictions for future seismic events. This paper ...

Springer2024

Influence of model uncertainty and long term deformations in action effects calculation in reinforced concrete structures

Xhemsi Malja

Most codes of practice adopt a semi probabilistic design approach for the dimensioning and assessment of structures. Accordingly, structural safety is ensured by performing limit state verifications using design values determined with adequately calibrated ...

EPFL2024

Precision luminosity measurement at hadron colliders

Joanna Malgorzata Wanczyk

This thesis links two realms of particle accelerator dynamics and precision particle physics. The achievement of precise luminosity measurement at hadron colliders is enabled with dedicated luminometers. For the Run 3 period, the luminometer upgrade was ...

EPFL2024

Luminosity determination using Z boson production at the CMS experiment

Rakesh Chawla, Andrea Rizzi, Matthias Finger, Federica Legger, Matteo Galli, Sun Hee Kim, João Miguel das Neves Duarte, Tagir Aushev, Hua Zhang, Alexis Kalogeropoulos, Yixing Chen, Tian Cheng, Ioannis Papadopoulos, Gabriele Grosso, Valérie Scheurer, Meng Xiao, Qian Wang, Michele Bianco, Varun Sharma, Joao Varela, Sourav Sen, Ashish Sharma, Seungkyu Ha, David Vannerom, Csaba Hajdu, Sanjeev Kumar, Sebastiana Gianì, Kun Shi, Abhisek Datta, Siyuan Wang, Anton Petrov, Jian Wang, Yi Zhang, Muhammad Ansar Iqbal, Yong Yang, Xin Sun, Muhammad Ahmad, Donghyun Kim, Matthias Wolf, Anna Mascellani, Paolo Ronchese, Kai Yi, Ji Hyun Kim, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Stability: a search for structure

Wouter Jongeneel

In this thesis we study stability from several viewpoints. After covering the practical importance, the rich history and the ever-growing list of manifestations of stability, we study the following. (i) (Statistical identification of stable dynamical syste ...

EPFL2024

Error estimates for SUPG-stabilised Dynamical Low Rank Approximations

Fabio Nobile, Thomas Simon Spencer Trigo Trindade

We perform an error analysis of a fully discretised Streamline Upwind Petrov Galerkin Dynamical Low Rank (SUPG-DLR) method for random time-dependent advection-dominated problems. The time integration scheme has a splitting-like nature, allowing for potenti ...

Springer Nature Switzerland2025

Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic

Andreas Fuster

We conduct two survey experiments to study which information people choose to consume and how it affects their beliefs. In the first experiment, respondents choose between optimistic and pessimistic article headlines related to the COVID-19 pandemic and ar ...

2024

Random matrix methods for high-dimensional machine learning models

Antoine Philippe Michel Bodin

In the rapidly evolving landscape of machine learning research, neural networks stand out with their ever-expanding number of parameters and reliance on increasingly large datasets. The financial cost and computational resources required for the training p ...

EPFL2024