Publication

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation

Publications associées (29)

Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy's Law

The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e., evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the assumed distribution of longevities has some bearing on the ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Siyu Chen, Alfredo Glioti

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference

Nikita Durasov, Nik Joel Dorndorf, Minh Hieu Lê

Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions on many kinds of data has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerge ...

2024

Extensions of Peer Prediction Incentive Mechanisms

Adam Julian Richardson

As large, data-driven artificial intelligence models become ubiquitous, guaranteeing high data quality is imperative for constructing models. Crowdsourcing, community sensing, and data filtering have long been the standard approaches to guaranteeing or imp ...

EPFL2024

Influence of model uncertainty and long term deformations in action effects calculation in reinforced concrete structures

Xhemsi Malja

Most codes of practice adopt a semi probabilistic design approach for the dimensioning and assessment of structures. Accordingly, structural safety is ensured by performing limit state verifications using design values determined with adequately calibrated ...

EPFL2024

Experimental characterization and stochastic models for time-dependent rupture of thin-ply composite laminates

Thin-laminate composites with thicknesses below 200 mu m hold significant promise for future, larger, and lighter deployable structures. This paper presents a study of the time-dependent failure behavior of thin carbon-fiber laminates under bending, focusi ...

2024

Statistical Inference for Inverse Problems: From Sparsity-Based Methods to Neural Networks

Pakshal Narendra Bohra

In inverse problems, the task is to reconstruct an unknown signal from its possibly noise-corrupted measurements. Penalized-likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian estimation are two powerful statistical paradigms for the resolution of such problems. They ...

EPFL2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Quantifying the Unknown: Data-Driven Approaches and Applications in Energy Systems

Paul Scharnhorst

In light of the challenges posed by climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement, electricity generation is shifting to a more renewable and decentralized pattern, while the operation of systems like buildings is increasingly electrified. This calls ...

EPFL2024

Deciphering the nature of cell state transitions in single cells using quantitative modeling of temporal dynamics

Alex Russell Lederer

Cells are the smallest operational units of living systems. Through synthesis of various biomolecules and exchange of signals with the environment, cells tightly regulate their composition to realize a specific functional state. The transformation of a cel ...

EPFL2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Alain Nussbaumer, Aurelio Muttoni, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Design of an Open-Loop Pile-Oscillation Program in the CROCUS Reactor

Andreas Pautz, Vincent Pierre Lamirand, Thomas Jean-François Ligonnet, Axel Guy Marie Laureau

As a follow-up to the CEA-EPFL PETALE experimental program on stainless steel nuclear data, the EPFL initiated an open-loop pile-oscillation experimental program in the CROCUS reactor: BLOOM. A reproduction of the critical experiments of PETALE, the progra ...

2024

Mean value theorems for collections of lattices with a prescribed group of symmetries

Nihar Prakash Gargava

Euclidean lattices are mathematical objects of increasing interest in the fields of cryptography and error-correcting codes. This doctoral thesis is a study on high-dimensional lattices with the motivation to understand how efficient they are in terms of b ...

EPFL2024

Robot Learning using Tensor Networks

Suhan Narayana Shetty

In various robotics applications, the selection of function approximation methods greatly influences the feasibility and computational efficiency of algorithms. Tensor Networks (TNs), also referred to as tensor decomposition techniques, present a versatile ...

EPFL2024

NMR and MS reveal characteristic metabolome atlas and optimize esophageal squamous cell carcinoma early detection

Lijing Xin, Yan Lin, Wei Ye, Yubo Zhao

Metabolic changes precede malignant histology. However, it remains unclear whether detectable characteristic metabolome exists in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) tissues and biofluids for early diagnosis. Here, we conduct NMR- and MS-based metabo ...

Nature Portfolio2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Scenario optimization for the tokamak ramp-down phase in RAPTOR: A. Analysis and model validation on ASDEX Upgrade

Olivier Sauter, Federico Alberto Alfredo Felici, Anna Teplukhina, Simon Van Mulders, Cassandre Ekta Contré, Bernhard Sieglin

We discuss how the combination of experimental observations and rapid modeling has enabled to improve understanding of the tokamak ramp-down phase in ASDEX Upgrade. A series of dedicated experiments has been performed, to disentangle the effect of individu ...

Iop Publishing Ltd2024

Wind, Hail, and Climate Extremes: Modelling and Attribution Studies for Environmental Data

Ophélia Mireille Anna Miralles

This thesis presents work at the junction of statistics and climate science. We first provide methodology for use by climate scientists when performing fast event attribution using extreme value theory, and then describe two interdisciplinary projects in c ...

EPFL2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023