Publications related to Ensemble forecasting

Towards Motion Forecasting with Real-World Perception Inputs: Are End-to-End Approaches Competitive?

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline. In this complex ...

2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall for Urban Applications in the Netherlands

Guo-Shiuan Lin, Marc Schleiss

Radar rainfall nowcasting has mostly been applied to relatively large (often rural) domains (e.g., river basins), although rainfall nowcasting in small urban areas is expected to be more challenging. Here, we selected 80 events with high rainfall intensiti ...

Amer Meteorological Soc2024

Good enough: Intermediate complexity atmospheric models improve the representation of processes affecting seasonal snow

Dylan Stewart Reynolds

Snow plays a crucial role in processes regulating ecosystems, the climate, and human development. Mountain snowpack in particular has great relevance for downstream communities. Knowledge about the distribution and properties of the snowpack thus help in p ...

EPFL2024

Network time series forecasting in photovoltaics power production

Jelena Simeunovic

Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power production is crucial for the integration of more renewable energy sources into the power grid. PV power production is highly intermittent, due to the stochastic cloud behaviour and cloud dynamics. Previous w ...

EPFL2024

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Euclid: The search for primordial features

Frédéric Courbin, Yiming Li, Georges Meylan, Yi Wang, Richard Massey, Fabio Finelli, Marcello Farina

Primordial features, in particular oscillatory signals, imprinted in the primordial power spectrum of density perturbations represent a clear window of opportunity for detecting new physics at high-energy scales. Future spectroscopic and photometric measur ...

Edp Sciences S A2024

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Benjamin Bejar Haro, Ekaterina Krymova, Ntorina Thanou, Nicola Parolini, Daniel Rodrigo Lopez, Andrea Kraus, Daniel Lopez, David Kraus, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning

Guillaume Romain Obozinski, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

On average every 2 years, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits extreme perturbations known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The impact of these events is not limited to the stratosphere: but they can also influence the weather at the surface of ...

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2023

Deep Generative Models for Autonomous Driving: from Motion Forecasting to Realistic Image Synthesis

Saeed Saadatnejad

Forecasting is a capability inherent in humans when navigating. Humans routinely plan their paths, considering the potential future movements of those around them. Similarly, to achieve comparable sophistication and safety, autonomous systems must embrace ...

EPFL2023

Optimizing Sales Forecasting, Inventory, Pricing and Sourcing Decisions

Yara Kayyali El Alem

In this thesis we address various factors that contribute both theoretically and practically to mitigating supply demand mismatches. The thesis is composed of three chapters, where each chapter is an independent scientific paper. In the first paper, we dev ...

EPFL2023

Assessing the simulation of snowfall at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, during the YOPP-SH special observing campaign

Alexis Berne, Etienne Gabriel Henri Vignon

The performance of a set of atmospheric models and meteorological reanalyses in the representation of precipitation days in Antarctica is assessed using ground-based observations such as a precipitation gauge and a Micro Rain Radar during the Year Of Polar ...

WILEY2023

Short-term runoff forecasting in an alpine catchment with a long short-term memory neural network

Devis Tuia, Marc Conrad Russwurm, Corinna Barbara Frank

The governing hydrological processes are expected to shift under climate change in the alpine regions of Switzerland. This raises the need for more adaptive and accurate methods to estimate river flow. In high-altitude catchments influenced by snow and gla ...

2023

CRYOWRF—Model Evaluation and the Effect of Blowing Snow on the Antarctic Surface Mass Balance

Varun Sharma, Michael Lehning, Franziska Gerber

The surface mass balance (SMB) of large polar ice sheets and of snow and ice surfaces in general are incompletely understood because of the complexity of processes involved. One such process, drifting and blowing snow, has only been considered in a very si ...

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION2023

Making Computer Vision Models Robust and Adaptive

Shuqing Teresa Yeo

Visual perception is indispensable for many real-world applications. However, perception models deployed in the real world will encounter numerous and unpredictable distribution shifts, for example, changes in geographic locations, motion blur, and adverse ...

EPFL2023

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Ekaterina Krymova, Markus Scholz

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases an ...

Springernature2022

Unlocking crowding by ensemble statistics

Michael Herzog, David Pascucci, Oh-Hyeon Choung, Yury Markov, Natalia Tiurina

In crowding,1-7 objects that can be easily recognized in isolation appear jumbled when surrounded by other elements.8 Traditionally, crowding is explained by local pooling mechanisms,3,6,9-15 but many findings have shown that the global configuration of th ...

2022

An evaluation of new particle formation events in Helsinki during a Baltic Sea cyanobacterial summer bloom

Lubna Dada, Marjan Marbouti

Several studies have investigated new particle formation (NPF) events from various sites ranging from pristine locations, including forest sites, to urban areas. However, there is still a dearth of studies investigating NPF processes and subsequent aerosol ...

Copernicus GmbH2022

Leveraging topology, geometry, and symmetries for efficient Machine Learning

Michaël Defferrard

When learning from data, leveraging the symmetries of the domain the data lies on is a principled way to combat the curse of dimensionality: it constrains the set of functions to learn from. It is more data efficient than augmentation and gives a generaliz ...

EPFL2022

Calibration of ground surface albedo models

Christophe Ballif, Pierre-Jean Alet, Arttu Matias Tuomiranta

The emergence of bifacial photovoltaics as a serious option for large-scale power generation makes the accuracy of the in-situ estimation of ground surface albedo increasingly critical. Recent studies have evaluated the performance of different models but ...

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD2022