Publications associées à Uncertainty quantification

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Model uncertainties in action effects and load bearing capacity calculation in statically indeterminate reinforced concrete structures

Aurelio Muttoni, Alain Nussbaumer, Xhemsi Malja

For the dimensioning and assessment of structures, it is common practice to compare action effects with sectional resistances. Extensive studies have been performed to quantify the model uncertainty on the resistance side. However, for statically indetermi ...

Ernst & Sohn2024

Federated learning with uncertainty-based client clustering for fleet-wide fault diagnosis

Olga Fink, Hao Lu, Chao Hu

Operators from various industries have been pushing the adoption of wireless sensing nodes for industrial monitoring, and such efforts have produced sizeable condition monitoring datasets that can be used to build diagnosis algorithms capable of warning ma ...

2024

Design of an Open-Loop Pile-Oscillation Program in the CROCUS Reactor

Andreas Pautz, Vincent Pierre Lamirand, Thomas Jean-François Ligonnet, Axel Guy Marie Laureau

As a follow-up to the CEA-EPFL PETALE experimental program on stainless steel nuclear data, the EPFL initiated an open-loop pile-oscillation experimental program in the CROCUS reactor: BLOOM. A reproduction of the critical experiments of PETALE, the progra ...

2024

ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference

Nikita Durasov, Minh Hieu Lê, Nik Joel Dorndorf

Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions on many kinds of data has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerge ...

2024

Computation of sensitivity coefficients in fixed source simulations with SERPENT2

Andreas Pautz, Mathieu Hursin

Within the scope of the implementation of a nuclear data pipeline aiming at producing the best possible evaluated nuclear data files, a major point is the production of relevant sensitivity coefficients when including integral benchmark information. Thanks ...

Elsevier Science Sa2024

Quantifying the Unknown: Data-Driven Approaches and Applications in Energy Systems

Paul Scharnhorst

In light of the challenges posed by climate change and the goals of the Paris Agreement, electricity generation is shifting to a more renewable and decentralized pattern, while the operation of systems like buildings is increasingly electrified. This calls ...

EPFL2024

A FEM modelling workflow to simulate THM effects in the rock around nuclear waste packages

Matthias Timothee Stanislas Wojnarowicz

High-level waste, stemming from nuclear electricity generation poses significant environmental and safety concerns. Currently, high-level wastes are stored in interim facilities needing constant monitoring and waiting for a definitive solution. Deep geolog ...

EPFL2024

Reducing uncertainties in response predictions of earthquake-damaged masonry buildings using data from image-based inspection

Ian Smith, Katrin Beyer, Bryan German Pantoja Rosero, Mathias Christian Haindl Carvallo

Image information about the state of a building after an earthquake, which can be collected without endangering the post-earthquake reconnaissance activities, can be used to reduce uncertainties in response predictions for future seismic events. This paper ...

Springer2024

Luminosity determination using Z boson production at the CMS experiment

Matthias Finger, Konstantin Androsov, Qian Wang, Jan Steggemann, Anna Mascellani, Yiming Li, Varun Sharma, Xin Chen, Rakesh Chawla, Matteo Galli, Jian Wang, João Miguel das Neves Duarte, Tagir Aushev, Matthias Wolf, Yi Zhang, Tian Cheng, Yixing Chen, Werner Lustermann, Andromachi Tsirou, Alexis Kalogeropoulos, Andrea Rizzi, Ioannis Papadopoulos, Paolo Ronchese, Hua Zhang, Siyuan Wang, Tao Huang, David Vannerom, Michele Bianco, Sebastiana Gianì, Sun Hee Kim, Kun Shi, Abhisek Datta, Federica Legger, Gabriele Grosso, Ji Hyun Kim, Donghyun Kim, Zheng Wang, Sanjeev Kumar, Wei Li, Yong Yang, Ajay Kumar, Ashish Sharma, Georgios Anagnostou, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Seismic Testing of Adjacent Interacting Masonry Structures – Analysis of a Blind Prediction

Katrin Beyer, Igor Tomic, Andrea Penna

Masonry aggregates, which emerged as layouts of cities and villages became denser, make up historical centres all over the world. In these aggregates, neighbouring structures may share structural walls that are joined at the interfaces by mortar or interlo ...

Springer2024

Influence of model uncertainty and long term deformations in action effects calculation in reinforced concrete structures

Xhemsi Malja

Most codes of practice adopt a semi probabilistic design approach for the dimensioning and assessment of structures. Accordingly, structural safety is ensured by performing limit state verifications using design values determined with adequately calibrated ...

EPFL2024

Enabling Uncertainty Estimation in Iterative Neural Networks

Pascal Fua, Nikita Durasov, Doruk Oner, Minh Hieu Lê

Turning pass-through network architectures into iterative ones, which use their own output as input, is a well-known approach for boosting performance. In this paper, we argue that such architectures offer an additional benefit: The convergence rate of the ...

Curran Associates2024

Seebeck Coefficient of Ionic Conductors from Bayesian Regression Analysis

We propose a novel approach to evaluating the ionic Seebeck coefficient in electrolytes from relatively short equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, based on the Green-Kubo theory of linear response and Bayesian regression analysis. By exploiting the ...

Amer Chemical Soc2024

Shape Holomorphy of Boundary Integral Operators on Multiple Open Arcs

Fernando José Henriquez Barraza

We establish shape holomorphy results for general weakly- and hyper-singular boundary integral operators arising from second-order partial differential equations in unbounded two-dimensional domains with multiple finite-length open arcs. After recasting th ...

Springer Birkhauser2024

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

Olga Fink, Luca Biggio

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability impr ...

2023

Reliability analysis and partial safety format calibration considering the characteristics of the resistance of reinforced concrete structures

Qianhui Yu

Every engineering calculation is an approximation of reality, with inevitable uncertainties involved. This fact implies that a reliability verification accounting for the uncertainties is a necessary step in the design and assessment of structures. Nowaday ...

EPFL2023

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Athanasios Nenes

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent wo ...

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION2023

On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized models

Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová, Lucas Andry Clarte, Bruno Loureiro, Bruno Loureiro

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ra ...

PMLR Proceedings of Machine Learning Research2023

Uncertainty-aware Flexibility Envelope Prediction in Buildings with Controller-agnostic Battery Models

Colin Neil Jones, Paul Scharnhorst, Rafael Eduardo Carrillo Rangel, Pierre-Jean Alet, Baptiste Schubnel

Buildings are a promising source of flexibility for the application of demand response. In this work, we introduce a novel battery model formulation to capture the state evolution of a single building. Being fully data-driven, the battery model identificat ...

IEEE2023