Publications associées à Gaussian Process Regression for Maximum Entropy Distribution

Generalized Bradley-Terry Models for Score Estimation from Paired Comparisons

Le Nguyen Hoang, Julien René Pierre Fageot, Sadegh Farhadkhani, Oscar Jean Olivier Villemaud

Many applications, e.g. in content recommendation, sports, or recruitment, leverage the comparisons of alternatives to score those alternatives. The classical Bradley-Terry model and its variants have been widely used to do so. The historical model conside ...

AAAI Press2024

Boosting likelihood learning with event reweighting

Andrea Wulzer, Siyu Chen, Alfredo Glioti

Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are obtained in this ...

Springer Nature2024

On distributional autoregression and iterated transportation

Victor Panaretos, Laya Ghodrati

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of Double-struck capital R. An order-1 autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov chain, where ...

Wiley2024

Machine Learning for Modeling Stock Returns

Teng Andrea Xu

Throughout history, the pace of knowledge and information sharing has evolved into an unthinkable speed and media. At the end of the XVII century, in Europe, the ideas that would shape the "Age of Enlightenment" were slowly being developed in coffeehouses, ...

EPFL2024

Transportation-based functional ANOVA and PCA for covariance operators

Victor Panaretos, Yoav Zemel, Valentina Masarotto

We consider the problem of comparing several samples of stochastic processes with respect to their second-order structure, and describing the main modes of variation in this second order structure, if present. These tasks can be seen as an Analysis of Vari ...

Inst Mathematical Statistics-Ims2024

TIC-TAC: A Framework for Improved Covariance Estimation in Deep Heteroscedastic Regression

Mathieu Salzmann, Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Megh Hiren Shukla

Deep heteroscedastic regression involves jointly optimizing the mean and covariance of the predicted distribution using the negative log-likelihood. However, recent works show that this may result in sub-optimal convergence due to the challenges associated ...

2024

Bayes-optimal Learning of Deep Random Networks of Extensive-width

Hugo Chao Cui, Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a deep, extensive-width, non-linear neural network with random Gaussian weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the number of samples, the input dimension and the network width ...

2023

Density estimation in RKHS with application to Korobov spaces in high dimensions

Fabio Nobile, Yoshihito Kazashi

A kernel method for estimating a probability density function from an independent and identically distributed sample drawn from such density is presented. Our estimator is a linear combination of kernel functions, the coefficients of which are determined b ...

2023

An Unbiased Method of Measuring the Ratio of Two Data Sets

Jean-Paul Richard Kneib, Huanyuan Shan

In certain cases of astronomical data analysis, the meaningful physical quantity to extract is the ratio R between two data sets. Examples include the lensing ratio, the interloper rate in spectroscopic redshift samples, and the decay rate of gravitational ...

IOP Publishing Ltd2023

Robust discrete choice models with t-distributed kernel errors

Michel Bierlaire, Prateek Bansal, Thomas Gasos

Outliers in discrete choice response data may result from misclassification and misreporting of the response variable and from choice behaviour that is inconsistent with modelling assumptions (e.g. random utility maximisation). In the presence of outliers, ...

2023

Distributional Regression and Autoregression via Optimal Transport

Laya Ghodrati

We present a framework for performing regression when both covariate and response are probability distributions on a compact and convex subset of

\R^d

. Our regression model is based on the theory of optimal transport and links the conditional Fr'echet m ...

EPFL2023

End-to-end kernel learning via generative random Fourier features

Jie Yang, Fanghui Liu

Random Fourier features (RFFs) provide a promising way for kernel learning in a spectral case. Current RFFs-based kernel learning methods usually work in a two-stage way. In the first-stage process, learn-ing an optimal feature map is often formulated as a ...

ELSEVIER SCI LTD2023

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Max-Olivier Hongler

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve ex ...

2023

Distributionally Robust Linear Quadratic Control

Daniel Kuhn, Cagil Kocyigit, Bahar Taskesen

Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control is a fundamental control paradigm that is studied in various fields such as engineering, computer science, economics, and neuroscience. It involves controlling a system with linear dynamics and imperfect observations ...

2023

Wideband integrated bioaerosol sensor (WIBS) excited, fluorescent, and hyper-fluorescent particle number concentrations and normalized size distributions (dN/dlogDp) measured in the Swiss container during MOSAiC 2019/2020

Julia Schmale, Ivo Fabio Beck, Margarida Teles Nogueira Rolo, Alireza Moallemi

These datasets contain the total particle number concentrations and normalized size distributions (dN/dlogDp) of excited, fluorescent, and hyper-fluorescent particles of sizes 0.5 to 20 μm (optical diameter). The normalized size distribution datasets are s ...

Zenodo2023

Regressive Tomography and Direct Regressive Reconstruction: A Research Note

Henri Weisen

Two related methods for inverting line-integrated measurements are presented in this research paper in the context of the recent deuterium-tritium experiments in the JET tokamak. Unlike traditional methods of tomography, these methods rely on making use of ...

2023

Inferring free-energy barriers and kinetic rates from molecular dynamics via underdamped Langevin models

Fabio Pietrucci, Sara Bonella, David Daniel Girardier

Rare events include many of the most interesting transformation processes in condensed matter, from phase transitions to biomolecular conformational changes to chemical reactions. Access to the corresponding mechanisms, free-energy landscapes and kinetic r ...

Aip Publishing2023

Higher Order Asymptotics: Applications to Satellite Conjunction and Boundary Problems

Soumaya Elkantassi

Higher-order asymptotics provide accurate approximations for use in parametric statistical modelling. In this thesis, we investigate using higher-order approximations in two-specific settings, with a particular emphasis on the tangent exponential model. ...

EPFL2023

Pressure-freezing of dodecane: exploring the crystal structures, formation kinetics and phase diagrams for colossal barocaloric effects in n-alkanes

Tomasz Poreba

Barocaloric (BC) materials provide cheaper and more energy efficient alternatives to traditional refrigerants. Some liquid alkanes were recently shown to exhibit a colossal BC effect, matching the entropy changes in commercial vapour-liquid refrigerants. D ...

Royal Soc Chemistry2023

Machine Learning Methods for Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Controller Approximation

Emilio Maddalena

This thesis is situated at the crossroads between machine learning and control engineering. Our contributions are both theoretical, through proposing a new uncertainty quantification methodology in a kernelized context; and experimental, through investigat ...

EPFL2023